US-Iran tensions rise, RBA hikes rates to counter inflation

In focus today

Today will be quiet in terms of data releases, with only US data releases on the calendar. In the afternoon, the April ISM Services Index and March JOLTs job openings will be released. Especially, the latter is a key indicator of labour demand for the Fed. It will be interesting to see how March figures compare to February, when JOLTS job openings fell to 6.882m, with the job openings-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 0.9, signalling weaker wage growth ahead.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked rates by 25bp, bringing the policy rate to 4.35%. This marks the third increase in 2026, as the RBA responds to sustained inflationary pressures. While higher energy prices driven by Middle East tensions are a key factor, stronger-than-expected domestic demand and capacity constraints are also contributing. Inflation remains elevated, with second-round effects emerging, reinforcing the RBA's commitment to restoring price stability.

Tensions in the US-Iran conflict intensified as Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the UAE, igniting a fire at a petroleum industrial site and prompting the UAE to intercept multiple projectiles. In response, the US reported sinking six Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. Amidst these developments, US forces reportedly cleared paths for two vessels through the strait, with Mærsk confirming its US-flagged Alliance Fairfax transited under military protection. Tehran condemned the move as a violation of the ceasefire. Energy markets remain volatile, with Brent crude prices at 113 USD/bbl, reflecting persistent supply concerns. Mounting tensions are testing the fragile ceasefire, with risks to inflation becoming more pronounced.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, the ECB's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) revealed higher inflation expectations, but lower growth projections compared to the previous survey. Inflation is projected at 2.7% y/y for 2026 and 2.1% y/y for 2027, while GDP growth for 2026 has been revised down to 1.0% y/y from 1.2% y/y. With minimal changes to long-term inflation expectations, the report offers limited support for rate hikes and leans slightly dovish. Inflation forecasts may have a downward bias, as the survey was conducted during the two-week ceasefire announcement. Forecasts assumed USD oil prices of 94 in Q2, 85 in Q3, and 80 in Q4, while Brent oil prices fell sharply during the survey period, dropping from 120 USD/bbl on 31 March to 90 USD/bbl by 8 April.

In Denmark, the central bank did not intervene in the FX market in April, even as EUR/DKK reached a new historic high of 7.4735. Its steady approach toward the recent upward trend in EUR/DKK suggests that it may allow the currency pair to rise further if upward pressure resumes. Additionally, the lack of intervention in FX markets indicates that the likelihood of a unilateral rate hike in Denmark this year remains low, in our view.

In Sweden, manufacturing PMI increased to 57.2 in April. Input prices surged to 81.3, its highest level since 2022. Despite this increase, the report revealed declines in new orders and production. Delivery times lengthened, which typically boosts PMI as longer delivery times often signal strong demand. However, it is likely that the current increase in delivery times is primarily due to supply chain disruptions rather than heightened demand.

Equities: Equities were lower yesterday. S&P 500 -0.4% and Stoxx 600 -1% in a volatile session, characterized by Iran headlines. This was a de-risking session in equities, with almost all sectors lower but tech and energy. Defensive stocks outperformed, including health care and tech while industrials, materials and consumer discretionary sold off ~-1%. It is interesting to see tech outperforming even in a defensive session like yesterday, especially as yield were materially higher. This mix would easily have made the tech the worst performing sector three months ago. Instead, software stocks even bounced 2% yesterday, outperforming the market by a meaningful 3pp. This says something about the strength of the latest tech stock rotation. As our readers will know, we see it continuing. 

FI and FX: Escalation between the US and Iran sent bond yields higher and USD stronger. Global bond yields rose again as tensions remain high in the Middle East after an escalation of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices higher. 30Y Treasuries are now trading above 5% and the short-term risk is that yields will grind higher unless some form of deal is reached between Iran and the US. The dollar grinded lower versus the euro, while JPY remains stable given the possibility for currency intervention.