Forex Analysis

USD/JPY collapses to seven-month lows near 154.00

USD/JPY extends its decline on Monday, sliding to the area of seven-month lows near the 154.00 neighbourhood, all amid an increasingly hawkish repricing of the BoJ’s policy outlook and repatriation chatter.

EUR/USD flirts with daily tops around 1.1630

EUR/USD holds on to modest gains above 1.1600 on Monday. The pair thus reverses Friday’s downtick on the back of the renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar, while promising results from another revision of GDP figures in the Euroland also contributes to the sentiment.

Gold recovers intraday losses to sub-$4,400 as USD slumps despite Fed rate hike bets

Gold shows some resilience below the $4,400 mark, and recovers intraday losses during the first half of the European session. Any meaningful upside, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the latest US inflation figures, due later this week.

Stocks

Hiking, economy and stocks
Very solid jobs jigure upside beat – already Wednesday I talked with clients that the bar was set too lowe. This figure outdid expectation, and sent Sep rate hike odds to 60%, that‘s less than two thirds by midweek, but still enough to send stocks (and crypto) packing. Packing for good? I‘d examine breadth metrics, and also point to tech leading Friday even though yields pushed higher.

In-Depth Analysis

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.

Canada's 6.4% unemployment rate: Why Friday's jobs print puts the BoC's slack story on trial

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on Wednesday for a seventh straight meeting and rewrote the one paragraph that still argues against a hike. In July, the BoC’s statement called the labour market soft and pinned the unemployment rate inside a 6.5%-7% range it had held since the end of 2024. July's Labour Force Survey then printed 6.4%.

2% wages: Why Canada’s weak jobs data strengthens the BoC’s stance
Canada lost nearly 42K jobs in August against forecasts for a 15K gain, and the unemployment rate stayed at 6.4% anyway. Wages grew 2% on the year, the slowest since November 2017 outside the pandemic years.

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