Fed hike bets increase after PPI and CPI reports. Updated dot plot to be crucial for the dollar’s reaction. Warsh’s independence faces test amid Trump’s pressure for lower rates. For the Dollar to extend gains, Fed needs to satisfy current hawkish bets.

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Latest Videos

The Fed Has a BIG Problem: Treasury Yields #Shorts

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🔴 LIVE US August CPI Inflation: 5 Days to Warsh Fed Decision! DXY, Gold Key Levels & Market Reaction

The Fed Has a BIG Problem: Treasury Yields #Shorts

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British Pound buckles as US yields rise puts Fed in command

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In-Depth Analysis

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.

Canada's 6.4% unemployment rate: Why Friday's jobs print puts the BoC's slack story on trial

2% wages: Why Canada’s weak jobs data strengthens the BoC’s stance

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Private credit books a Fed hike as income until borrowers stop paying

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP recover ahead of US Senate vote on CLARITY Act

Bitcoin edges higher, trading near $77,884 as of Monday, in tandem with broader gains across the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum and Ripple follow Bitcoin’s neutral-to-bullish trajectory, holding key support levels at $2,521 and $1.38, respectively.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC recovery faces headwinds from ETF outflows and elevated Fed rate-hike bets

Bitcoin is recovering, trading above $78,200 on Monday after a more than 4% pullback the previous week. Elevated Fed rate-hike bets and geopolitical risks are boosting the USD, capping BTC’s upside potential.

Pi Network extends gains as ecosystem development supports recovery

Pi Network (PI) extends its recovery on Monday, trading above $0.097 after two consecutive weeks of gains. Continued ecosystem development and improved developer tools are boosting utility.

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Stocks

Google faces deeper correction risk as key $300 support comes into focus

Google (GOOGL) turned sharply lower after we identified a five-wave reversal from the upper channel, which appears to have marked the completion of a larger wave five impulsive sequence. The stock now looks to be entering a broader corrective phase, with the potential for significantly more weakness if key trend line support around the $300 level breaks.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: To hike or not to hike? Kevin Warsh between a rock and a hard place

The EUR/USD pair settled around 1.1600 for a third consecutive week, unable to find a clear way despite key macroeconomic headlines. The pair held within a tight 100-pip range for the second week in a row, as speculative interest awaits the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday.

Global inflation watch: Muted momentum outside of energy

Overview: Inflation in August came in broadly as expected in both the US and euro area. Momentum in underlying inflation remained muted on both sides of the Atlantic (see chart). Rising energy prices, particularly European gas futures, have moved up near-term inflation expectations.

Gold: Fed rate call and dot plot key for next directional action

Bitcoin: BTC retreats as macro headwinds grow

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure, down over 4% this week and trading around $76,900 at the time of writing on Friday. Institutional demand shows signs of weakness as spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are on track to end their three-week inflow streak, recording nearly $500 million in net outflows through Thursday.

US Dollar: No country for soft landings

There was no respite to the downward trend for the US Dollar (USD) this week, which added to the prior week’s retracement and at some point flirted with the area of four-month lows.