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The Fed kept interest rates on hold today, defying a 30% chance in the Fed Funds Futures market that rates would rise. The Committee voted 9-3 to keep rates on hold, with governors Kashkari, Hammack and Logan all voting to hike rates due to concerns about inflation. The immediate market reaction has been a sharp drop in the USD on a broad basis.
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In-Depth Analysis
Government borrowing costs have climbed sharply across the world as higher Oil prices revive inflation fears and force investors to reconsider whether the main central banks have finished raising interest rates. The sell-off has spread across the G10 space, lifting yields on everything from US Treasuries and British gilts to German Bunds, Japanese government bonds (JGB) and Australian debt (AGB).
Gold (XAU/USD) delivered a masterclass in volatility in the first half of the year, rising more than 20% in the January-February period before entering a downtrend that saw the precious metal lose nearly 30% from March to the end of the second quarter.
Cryptocurrencies
Ripple (XRP) rises toward the pivotal $1.10 resistance on Thursday, marking three consecutive days of gains. This neutral-to-slightly bullish outlook follows the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
Bitcoin (BTC) steadies above a key support zone on Thursday, consolidating near $64,000 after a modest rebound earlier this week. Fresh inflows into BTC spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has provided some support.
The crypto market is trading in neutral-to-slightly bullish conditions on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $64,000 while its immediate upside remains capped. Ethereum (ETH) hovers above the $1,900 short-term support level while Ripple (XRP) struggles to gain momentum ahead of a potential nail $1.10 breakout.
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Stocks
Overnight, South Korea's Kospi fell more than 10%, SK Hynix lost close to 15% and Samsung Electronics lost 13%. Into that, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded up around 1% on paint and soft drinks, and S&P 500 futures sat roughly flat. An index that absorbs a memory-chip panic and prints nothing is not a calm market.
Weekly Forecast
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has ridden a volatile first half of the year, with Oil prices surging and then falling as markets danced to the Middle East’s tune. Neither the Bank of Canada nor the Federal Reserve has changed rates so far this year, and the USD/CAD's next move may depend on which of the two banks fails to deliver what markets expect.
Bitcoin (BTC) is modestly recovering, trading at $65,400 on Friday and holding firmly above the key support zone. US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) supported BTC’s modest recovery as they continued to attract institutional inflows through Thursday, pointing to the third consecutive week of inflows.
Silver’s spectacular rise and brutal collapse in 2026 may look like the classic boom and bust story. But the metal’s rollercoaster ride is more complex: Silver was caught in the crossfire of the Iran war as investors fled precious metals, the US Dollar strengthened and rate-cut expectations faded.
