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Weekly Forecast

US Dollar surges post-Fed, uncertainty remains

The EUR/USD pair closed the week below 1.1500, not far above a fresh multi-week low of 1.1454. The US Dollar (USD) rallied following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, the sole market catalyst this past week.

Gold: Bulls regain control; the next leg higher remains uncertain

The precious metal started the week in quite a bearish mood, further extending the almost uninterrupted leg lower after August tops near the $4,700 mark per troy ounce. However, market sentiment made a U-turn in the second half of the week. It was not the Federal Reserve (Fed), reignited geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar (USD) or Treasury yields.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

Bitcoin: BTC shrugs off CLARITY Act setback and hawkish Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has remained resilient this week, trading above $78,000 at the time of writing on Friday, heading toward a key resistance zone. Institutional demand shows early signs of weakness, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on track for a second straight week of outflows, with over $420 million recorded through Thursday amid escalating Middle East tensions.

Forecasting the upcoming week: Trump, Xi, oil, tariffs and PMIs

A very positive week saw the US Dollar (USD) climb to new seven-week tops, mostly backed by the hawkish tilt at the FOMC event on Wednesday while unabated strength in Crude Oil prices have also underpinned the move during the first half of the week.

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In-Depth Analysis

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.

Fed recap: One hike down, more to come? The Fed’s new rate path says yes

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Diesel keeps climbing until someone reopens a pipeline

American Diesel costs $6.285 a gallon, more than it has ever cost, and it got there in a year when Gasoline never came close to its own record. Gasoline sits about 14% below the high it set in June 2022. Diesel sits about 8% above the high it set that month. Same crude, same refineries, same taxes, and nearly $2 a gallon between them. The world is not badly short of Oil.