NonFarm Payrolls

Breaking: Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 64,000 in November vs. 50,000 expected

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 64,000 in November, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 50,000.

US jobs report post-release checklist – December 16

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation	Negative	Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, beating the market expectation of 50,000. In October, however, Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 105,000.
NFP Revisions	Negative	The change in total Nonfarm Payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000.
Unemployment rate	Negative	The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.4%.
Labor Force Participation Rate	Neutral	The Labor Force Participation Rate improved slightly to 62.5% in November from 62.4%.
Average Hourly Earnings	Negative	Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, softened to 3.5% from 3.8%.

US jobs report pre-release checklist – December 16

Previous Nonfarm Payrolls	Neutral	Nonfarm Payrolls data for October will be released alongside the November readings.
Challenger Job Cuts	Positive	Employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, down sharply from 153,074 cuts announced in October.
Initial Jobless Claims	Positive	The number of people filing to receive unemployment benefits for the first time dropped to 191,000 in the last week of November.
Continuing Jobless Claims	Positive	Continuing claims stood at 1.838 million at the end of November, down from 1.937 million in the previous week.
ISM Services PMI	Negative	The ISM services PMI improved to 52.6 in November from 52.4 in October. In this period, the Employment Index edged higher but remained in the contraction territory below 50.
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Neutral	The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2 in November and the Employment Index declined to 44 from 46, reflecting an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector payrolls.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index	Negative	The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 51 in November from 53.6 in October.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	Negative	The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9.
ADP Employment Report	Negative	Private sector payrolls declined by 32,000 in November, following the 47,000 increase recorded in October, according to the ADP.
JOLTS Job Openings	Neutral	JOLTS Job Openings data for November has not been released yet. In October, the number of job openings rose to 7.67 million from 7.65 million in September.

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BIG PICTURE

NFP: The most important US economic indicator

NFP Definition

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the prior month. It is usually released by the US Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 ET.

The report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (the US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. This means that many economies peg their currency's value to that of the USD and many commodities such as Gold and Oil are priced in terms of the Dollar.

The NFP report tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies. It does so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes dramatically.

Why is NFP important?

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is arguably one of the biggest market movers in the Forex. The NFP figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.

A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.

The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

How does NFP affect the US Dollar?

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.

NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

How does NFP affect Gold?

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payroll figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.

Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.

Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

How to trade NFP?

Those who trade NFP releases base their advice on previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomic analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM reports, or other employment data published earlier such as ADP, JOLTS, or the Challenger report.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and the data can be overshadowed by the other components.

At times, when NFP comes out higher than forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.

The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but to a much lesser extent.