Gold Forecast and News
Gold recovers slightly from November 2025 lows; not out of the woods yet
Gold extends the recent breakdown momentum below the 200-day SMA and plummets to its lowest level since November 2025 during the Asian session on Thursday. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran push Crude Oil prices higher, reviving inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. This continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding bullion, though subdued US Dollar demand helps spot prices to find some support ahead of the $4,000 psychological mark.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades around $4,110, extending a bearish phase with price entrenched below the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which all sit well above the market and cap the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator keeps heading south despite standing at around 25, while the Momentum indicator heads south almost vertically, all of which reflects the strength of selling interest.
In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is also bearish, as price holds below the 20-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs, which have turned into a layered cap above the market. The RSI indicator near 20 signals oversold conditions, but the deeply negative Momentum reading reinforces persistent downside pressure, suggesting that any rebounds are likely to face selling interest while these averages remain overhead.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 20-period SMA around $4,271.84, with the 100-period SMA near $4,452.54 and the 200-period SMA close to $4,541.94 forming successive barriers that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current downward pressure. Below $4,098, on the other hand, the XAU/USD pair is poised to test buyers at the next psychological threshold, $4,000.
Fundamental Overview
Spot Gold extends its slump on Wednesday, and approaches the 2026 low posted in March at $4,098. Back then, the XAU/USD suffered a massive three-day sell-off from its all-time high of $5,598, partially explained by long liquidation, yet mostly due to the Oil shock resulting from the Iran war spurring rate hike concerns. Hopes for a conflict resolution helped the precious metal to recover ground, yet sellers capped advances at around $4,900.
Ever since then, Gold has been on the back foot, with attempts to recover resulting in the metal posting lower lows.
The US Dollar (USD) has overshadowed Gold as a safe haven preferred asset due to an additional factor: potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. An oil supply shortage led to higher prices, which quickly spilled over into inflation. Just today, the United States (US) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized pace of 4.2% in May, doubling the Fed’s goal. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.9% in the same period. Such levels pretty much grant a Fed interest rate hike before the year’s end.
Meanwhile, a ceasefire between the US and Iran seems over: according to the latest on the matter, Iran downed a US Army helicopter earlier this week. Fire exchange resumed, while US President Donald Trump threatened to “hit hard” Iran, although he repeated that they are working on a deal.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Strong US labor market weighs heavily as Middle East uncertainty lingers Premium
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1550 ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1540 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. Rising bets that the European Central Bank will deliver a rate hike at its June policy meeting later on Thursday underpin the Euro against the Greenback.
GBP/USD nudges higher above 1.3350 despite rising Fed hike bets
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3385 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside might be limited amid rising expectations for higher-for-longer US interest rates. Markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the US Producer Price Index report.
USD/JPY sits near the April-May intervention level, around mid-160.00s
USD/JPY consolidates its recent gains to the highest level since late April, around mid-160.00s, where Japan conducted its last major FX intervention. Renewed speculations that authorities will step in again lend support to the Japanese Yen and cap the currency pair amid subdued US Dollar demand. However, economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict keep the JPY bulls on the sidelines. Moreover, a fresh escalation of US-Iran tensions and bets for Fed rate hikes favor the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the upside.
Gold recovers slightly from November 2025 lows; not out of the woods yet
Gold extends the recent breakdown momentum below the 200-day SMA and plummets to its lowest level since November 2025 during the Asian session on Thursday. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran push Crude Oil prices higher, reviving inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. This continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding bullion, though subdued US Dollar demand helps spot prices to find some support ahead of the $4,000 psychological mark.
WTI rises to near $91.00 as US strikes continue against Iran
West Texas Intermediate oil price extends gains for the second successive day, trading around $90.70 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday. Crude oil prices are facing upward pressure as a second consecutive day of United States military strikes against Iran sparks fears of a prolonged conflict that could destabilize global energy markets.
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Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.