GBP/USD maintains its fresh bullish bias in the upper-1.2700s, printing marked gains in response to some loss of impulse in the US Dollar, which in turn lent fresh legs to the risk-associated universe on Tuesday.
Gold Forecast and News
Gold trims gains and breaches $3,000
Gold prices now lose some upside momentum and slip back below the critical $3,000 mark per troy ounce. Tuesday's recovery in the yellow metal comes on the back of the weaker US Dollar as well as steady trade tensions, while higher US yields continue to cap gains.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that the intraday spike was quickly reversed, and that the pair trades at fresh daily lows in the $2,970.00 region. The risk remains skewed to the downside, as Gold develops below its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which lacks clear directional strength. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, yet technical indicators stand well below their midlines, partially losing their bearish strength.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is clearer. A bearish 20 SMA crossed below a flat 100 SMA, while XAU/USD is currently sliding below the 200 SMA. Finally, technical indicators remain within negative levels without certain directional strength.
Support levels: 2,970.30 2,959.00 2,942.50
Resistance levels: 2,998.30 3,015.55 3,022.60
Fundamental Overview
Gold price hovered above the $3,000 mark for most of this Tuesday, as tariffs-related panic eased, leading to a modest recovery in global equities. The XAU/USD pair pierced the figure in the American session, but trades within a limited intraday range, as trade war-related headlines keep rocking the board.
The tepid good mood seen throughout the first half of the day soured on headlines indicating that the White House Press Secretary said 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon Eastern time because China has not removed its retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow, April 9. Wall Street holds on to the green, but trimmed half of its early gains, helping the US Dollar (USD) across the board.
Earlier in the day, China’s Commerce Ministry said they would “fight to the end” against US tariffs. There were no specific details on how Beijing will retaliate, but indeed, the answer is coming. Additionally, Chinese authorities noted that if the United States (US) wants to talk, it should show respect. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian added that “We will continue to take resolute and strong measures to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests.”
The world keeps revolving around US President Donald Trump’s trade war, and the recent calm is just a pause. Turmoil is expected to continue in the upcoming days, as more major economies are likely to announce countermeasures.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Correction deepens after new record-high is set on Trump’s tariff announcement Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) pushed higher with the initial reaction to tariff announcements from the United States (US) on Wednesday and touched a record peak of $3,167 before staging a deep correction heading into the weekend.
Metals Big Picture
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Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0900, eyes on tariffs
EUR/USD keeps the bid bias well in place so far on Tuesday, hovering above the 1.0900 barrier on the back of fresh downside pressure in the Greenback amid investors' hope of trade negotiations.
USD/JPY keeps the red near 147.50 amid renewed US Dollar downside
USD/JPY is battling 147.50 in Tuesday's Asian session, returning to the red zone. A recovery in risk sentiment along with receding bets that the BoJ would raise the policy rate at a faster pace underpin the pair. However, resurgent US Dollar supply acts as a headwind to the USD/JPY turnaround.
Gold trims gains and breaches $3,000
Gold prices now lose some upside momentum and slip back below the critical $3,000 mark per troy ounce. Tuesday's recovery in the yellow metal comes on the back of the weaker US Dollar as well as steady trade tensions, while higher US yields continue to cap gains.
WTI climbs back closer to mid-$61.00s; upside potential seems limited
West Texas Intermediate US Crude Oil prices attract some buyers on Tuesday following the previous day's US tariffs-led volatile price swings and currently trade just below mid-$61.00s, up over 1% for the day.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 XAU/USD forecast!
2025 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2025, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that geopolitical developments and Donald Trump’s policies are expected to influence Gold price in 2025. XAU/USD could meet the first support area at $2,530-$2,500, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the October 2023 to November 2024 uptrend and the psychological level align. On the upside, $2,900 (upper limit of the ascending regression channel) could act as the next resistance in case Gold rises to a new record high. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
It’s not an easy task to assign a direction for Gold in 2025 with high certainty. There are simply too many unknowns. Once Trump’s foreign and economic policies take shape, Gold’s outlook will become less cloudy. A strong Chinese economy, ongoing policy-easing by major central banks and a tense geopolitical environment could trigger another leg higher in XAU/USD prices.
If Trump’s policies fuel inflation and weigh on the global economy, Gold could come under pressure. Additional losses could be seen in case the geopolitical atmosphere becomes more favorable for risk trade.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
