GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD nudges higher above 1.3350 despite rising Fed hike bets
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3385 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside might be limited amid rising expectations for higher-for-longer US interest rates. Markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the US Producer Price Index report.
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The US military launched strikes against Iran, as ordered by US President Donald Trump, in retaliation for the shooting down of an American helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned the US to leave the region or face consequences, and said that Iran's armed forces would not leave any attack or threat unanswered. Adding to this, the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations tempers hopes for a peace deal and keeps geopolitical risks in play, which is seen benefiting the US Dollar's (USD) relative safe-haven status and acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.
The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due later today. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path and drive the USD demand in the near term. In the meantime, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Fed will hike interest rates by the end of this year amid worries that the war-driven rise in energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures. This turns out to be another factor that continues to support the buck and contributes to capping the upside for the GBP/USD pair.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid domestic political uncertainty. In fact, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's authority has been severely shaken following the resignations of junior ministers. This, to a larger extent, offsets expectations for at least one 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) by year-end 2026. Moreover, the overnight failure near the 1.3400 mark, ahead of a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), warrants some caution before positioning for further appreciation for the GBP/USD pair.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
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USD/JPY sits near the April-May intervention level, around mid-160.00s
USD/JPY consolidates its recent gains to the highest level since late April, around mid-160.00s, where Japan conducted its last major FX intervention. Renewed speculations that authorities will step in again lend support to the Japanese Yen and cap the currency pair amid subdued US Dollar demand. However, economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict keep the JPY bulls on the sidelines. Moreover, a fresh escalation of US-Iran tensions and bets for Fed rate hikes favor the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the upside.
AUD/USD vulnerable near two-month low amid escalating US-Iran tensions
AUD/USD touches a fresh low since April 13 during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through amid subdued US Dollar price action. However, a fresh wave of US strikes on Iran and bets that the US Fed will raise rates by the end of this year, despite soft consumer inflation figures, favor the USD bulls. Apart from this, expectations for a prolonged pause by the RBA back the case for a further depreciation in the Aussie.
Gold recovers slightly from November 2025 lows; not out of the woods yet
Gold extends the recent breakdown momentum below the 200-day SMA and plummets to its lowest level since November 2025 during the Asian session on Thursday. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran push Crude Oil prices higher, reviving inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. This continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding bullion, though subdued US Dollar demand helps spot prices to find some support ahead of the $4,000 psychological mark.
Bitcoin faces further downside risk amid growing short-term holder losses, weak ETF demand
Bitcoin's recent decline toward the $60,000 level has pushed the market further into bearish territory, with new investors suffering huge unrealized losses, according to a Glassnode report on Wednesday. The firm noted that Bitcoin's earlier May rally now appears increasingly as a "bear bounce".
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Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
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Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
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About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).