GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week
The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average pivotal support. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3360 region, nearly unchanged for the day.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
The overnight breakout through the 1.3275-1.3280 confluence – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-November downfall – is seen as a key trigger for the GBP/USD bulls. With oscillators on the daily chart holding in positive territory, some follow-through buying beyond the 1.3365 area (50% retracement level) should allow spot prices to reclaim the 1.3400 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 61.8% retracement level, around the 1.3455-1.3460 horizontal barrier, en route to the 1.3500 psychological mark.
On the flip side, corrective pullbacks might now find decent support near the 1.3300 round figure ahead of the 1.3380-1.3375 resistance breakpoint. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 1.3225 zone. This is closely followed by the 1.3200 mark, which, if broken decisively, will negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. The GBP/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the 1.3145-1.3140 intermediate support before dropping to sub-1.3100 levels.
Fundamental Overview
Markets have priced in nearly a 90% probability that the US central bank will lower the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. This would be the third rate reduction this year, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%.
However, traders anticipate a "hawkish cut” with cautious forward guidance. The Fed potentially indicates a pause in early 2026 due to lingering inflation concerns and a still resilient labor market. This, in turn, could provide some support to the USD and create a headwind for the major pair.
On the GBP’s front, concerns over higher overall taxation levels following the announcement of the UK autumn budget, along with softer inflation and a cooling labor market, add weight to the prospect of further Bank of England (BoE) policy shifts. Financial markets are currently pricing in a high probability around 88% of a quarter-point reduction at the upcoming BoE’s December meeting after signs from economic data that inflation pressure has eased, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pre-BoE consolidation on the cards Premium
The Pound Sterling notched up a third straight week of gains, finally breaking through the 1.3400 mark. It’s been a steady climb, and one that says more about the other side of the pair than anything happening at home.
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
AUD/USD hovers around 0.6650, unfazed by poor China's activity data
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Big week ends with big doubts
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Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
GBP/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the GBP/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta indicates divergence between United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy expectations and Donald Trump’s announced protectionist measures may strengthen the US Dollar (USD).
The Fed is signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy as it navigates strong economic growth and rising inflationary pressures under the new Trump administration.
In contrast, the Bank of England has adopted a more dovish stance amid a fragile UK economy. Market expectations are pricing in up to three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair faces further downside after breaking below the 18-month rising wedge support at 1.2682, with the RSI in negative territory. Key support levels are 1.2037, 1.1802, and 1.1500, potentially leading to the 1.1000 mark. Recovery attempts face resistance at 1.2900, with bullish momentum only confirmed above 1.3490.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Bailey on BoE's profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).