After hitting fresh six-month peaks near 1.3250, GBP/USD is now under a tepid selling pressure due to a strong comeback in the Greenback, causing it to retreat toward the 1.3200 support area. Next on the UK docket are inflation figures, expected to be released on Wednesday.
EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD remains offered and below 1.1300
EUR/USD is feeling the squeeze, revisiting the area around 1.1280 as the US Dollar gains extra momentum on Tuesday. Mixed domestic data from Industrial Production and Economic Sentiment haven't done the Euro any favours either.
Latest EUR News
EUR/USD Technical Overview
On the technical front, upside targets point to the first hurdle at the 2025 high of 1.1473 (April 11). A strong move above this level could pave the way toward the 2022 peak of 1.1498 (February 19), just ahead of the significant 1.1500 barrier.
Conversely, support is found at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0747, followed by the weekly low of 1.0732 (March 27) and then the 55-day SMA at 1.0695.
Momentum indicators reveal that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) receded to around 69, while an Average Directional Index (ADX) near 43 underscores a moderately strong trend that supports the prevailing bullish bias.
Fundamental Overview
The Euro (EUR) failed to retest recent highs vs. the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, remaining vulnerable to further selling pressure as bears remained in control of the sentiment surrounding the single currency.
Indeed, after reaching yearly highs near 1.1470 last week, EUR/USD came under pressure and slid back below the 1.1300 mark on Tuesday, or two-day troughs. This price action unfolded alongside a strong bounce in the US Dollar (USD), which sent the US Dollar Index (DXY) back above the 100.00 threshold.
Additionally, decreasing US Treasury yields and a mild rebound in Germany’s 10-year bund yields came along the pair’s daily dynamics.
Trade war concerns
Trade-related uncertainties remain a key worry for the markets. President Trump intensified fears of a global trade war by imposing a sweeping 10% duty on all US trade partners effective April 5, along with additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on select countries and regions.
The European Union (EU) faced a 20% tariff, and later, the White House confirmed that China would be hit with tariffs of up to 145%.
Although Trump announced a temporary 90-day pause on further tariffs for nations that refrain from retaliating—an offer that provided some relief to market participants—EU President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Brussels would not hesitate to respond if necessary.
Moreover, Trump's decision on Sunday to exclude smartphones and computers from the tariffs on China provided a slight buffer for the risk complex.
Central bank focus
Central banks remain at the forefront of market attention. The Federal Reserve (Fed) recently kept interest rates unchanged, voicing concerns that the newly imposed tariffs could reignite inflationary pressures amid slowing economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell later reiterated this cautious approach while hinting at an eventual easing cycle, with traders now pricing in a full percentage point of rate cuts by the end of the year following weaker-than-expected US inflation data in March.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is broadly expected to trim its interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday. While the ECB predicted modest short-term growth with slight inflationary pressures through 2026, President Christine Lagarde warned that an escalating trade conflict with the US might reduce Eurozone GDP by as much as 0.5%. Some ECB officials have even suggested that more policy adjustments could be on the horizon if tensions continue to rise.
Euro bulls hold their ground
In terms of positioning, speculative net longs in the Euro have surged to two-week highs of around 60K contracts according to the latest CFTC report, while hedge funds and other commercial players have increased their net shorts to approximately 90.5K contracts—another two-week peak. Meanwhile, open interest has jumped to multi-week highs nearing 700K contracts.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Trade war chaos far from over, USD condemned Premium
The EUR/USD pair jumped to 1.1473 on Friday, its highest since February 2022, amid escalating tensions between the United States (US) and China, triggering a US Dollar (USD) sell-off.
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EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD remains offered and below 1.1300
EUR/USD is feeling the squeeze, revisiting the area around 1.1280 as the US Dollar gains extra momentum on Tuesday. Mixed domestic data from Industrial Production and Economic Sentiment haven't done the Euro any favours either.
Japanese Yen sticks to modest intraday losses against USD; bullish potential seems intact
The Japanese Yen is undermined by receding safe-haven demand amid a positive risk tone. Concerns about Trump’s tariffs and hopes for a US-Japan trade deal could limit JPY losses. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations further contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair.
Gold embarks on a consolidative move around $3,200
Gold is holding its own on Tuesday, trading just above $3,200 per troy ounce as it bounces back from earlier losses. While a more upbeat risk sentiment is bolstering the rebound, lingering concerns over a deepening global trade rift have prevented XAU/USD from rallying too aggressively.
WTI stays above $61.00 due to tariff relief hopes, strong Chinese imports
West Texas Intermediate crude Oil price remains stable around $61.10 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. A potential upside in crude prices is supported by recent comments from US President Donald Trump, who suggested the possibility of new tariff exemptions.
Majors
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Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EURUSD 2025 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, says the EUR/USD pair is ending a third consecutive month in the red and technical readings in the monthly chart suggest 2025 will be a tough year for the Euro. The macroeconomic picture favors the USD over the EUR, as with even inflationary pressures, the focus will be on economic developments. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0334 and as high as 1.1214 throughout 2024, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
Generally speaking, a Republican victory is seen as positive for financial markets. Wall Street rallied, with the three major indexes hitting record levels amid Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services. Tariffs, if implemented, could mean higher prices for Americans in a wide spectrum of goods and services. Worth adding that his tariffs policy could also spread into other major economies.
The Fed signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025, projecting only two reductions as inflation remains above target and economic growth stays solid.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.