US DOLLAR INDEX Forecast and News
US Dollar Index declines despite increased safe-haven demand
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding losses after registering minor gains in the previous day and trading around 100.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
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USD/JPY sits near the April-May intervention level, around mid-160.00s
USD/JPY consolidates its recent gains to the highest level since late April, around mid-160.00s, where Japan conducted its last major FX intervention. Renewed speculations that authorities will step in again lend support to the Japanese Yen and cap the currency pair amid subdued US Dollar demand. However, economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict keep the JPY bulls on the sidelines. Moreover, a fresh escalation of US-Iran tensions and bets for Fed rate hikes favor the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the upside.
AUD/USD vulnerable near two-month low amid escalating US-Iran tensions
AUD/USD touches a fresh low since April 13 during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through amid subdued US Dollar price action. However, a fresh wave of US strikes on Iran and bets that the US Fed will raise rates by the end of this year, despite soft consumer inflation figures, favor the USD bulls. Apart from this, expectations for a prolonged pause by the RBA back the case for a further depreciation in the Aussie.
Gold recovers slightly from November 2025 lows; not out of the woods yet
Gold extends the recent breakdown momentum below the 200-day SMA and plummets to its lowest level since November 2025 during the Asian session on Thursday. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran push Crude Oil prices higher, reviving inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. This continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding bullion, though subdued US Dollar demand helps spot prices to find some support ahead of the $4,000 psychological mark.
Bitcoin faces further downside risk amid growing short-term holder losses, weak ETF demand
Bitcoin's recent decline toward the $60,000 level has pushed the market further into bearish territory, with new investors suffering huge unrealized losses, according to a Glassnode report on Wednesday. The firm noted that Bitcoin's earlier May rally now appears increasingly as a "bear bounce".
From sizzle to fizzle: Tech sinks as Oil puts the Fed tail back on the table
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US DOLLAR INDEX
The US Dollar Index (DXY, USDX) measures the value of the United States Dollar relative to
a basket of foreign currencies. It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar’s value relative to the following
select currencies: Euro (57.6% weight), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish
Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%).
The index started in 1973, following the dissolution of the Bretton Woods
system, with a base value of 100.00. Values are relative to this base – for instance, a current reading of 99.800
would indicate that the dollar has depreciated by 0.2% since the start of the index.
US Dollar Index on Wikipedia
INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND ECONOMIC DATA FOR THE US DOLLAR INDEX
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
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The US Government
The US Government and its Treasury Department impact the US Dollar Index. Events such as administration statements, budgets, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the DXY.
US Gross Domestic Product
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the total market value of all final goods and services produced in the United States. It serves as a gross measure of market activity, indicating the pace at which the nation's economy is growing or contracting. Generally, a high reading or better-than-expected number is considered positive for the Dollar Index, while a low reading is seen as negative.