Gold's final rebound ends, as it did in 2013

At the moment of writing these words, December gold futures trade near $3,900, after moving down to $3,887.70, their lowest level since October 30. Silver futures are near $50.40, and the USD Index futures moved up to 103 this morning, a new 2026 high. In my view, gold's early-November correction is over.

On Tuesday, I wrote: "The current rebound seems to be the final one, similar to the rebound of February and March 2013, which came right before gold's April 2013 crash." On Wednesday, gold rallied to $4,074.70, then it reversed and settled at $4,000.50, and today, it's sliding.

The 2013 parallel is the key to what comes next.

What happened in 2013

In 2013, gold's steady, back-and-forth decline from its October 2012 top was interrupted by one more correction. From its February 21 low of $1,555.06, gold moved back up to $1,616.47 on March 21, which retraced about a quarter of its decline from the October 5, 2012 high.

Then the decline resumed. In mid-April, gold collapsed from $1,561.09 on April 11 to $1,321.54 on April 16, and the slide continued until late June.

This year's chart follows the same steps.

The 2026 version

This year, gold's steady, back-and-forth decline from the August 25 top was interrupted by a similar correction. From its October 30 low of $3,879.30, gold moved back up to $4,157.70 on November 9, which retraced about a third of the decline from the August high.

In my view, gold corrected almost exactly like it did in 2013 before the huge slide, and now, it's declining again. Staying bearish was a good idea in 2013, and in my view, it's a good idea in this bear market too.

The dollar makes the parallel even more convincing.

The Dollar hits new highs

Yesterday, I wrote: "It looks like the USD Index is ready to move to new yearly highs." On Wednesday, the USD Index futures closed at 102.82, their highest close of the year, and this morning, they moved up to 103.

Rates are the driver. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called Tuesday's CPI report "borderline disturbing," the fed funds futures fully price a December rate hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield is back above 5 percent. Hawkish comments and rising bond yields support the dollar, and a stronger dollar is bearish for gold.

Gold didn't even benefit from the war risk. Israel's security cabinet ordered the military to step up its preparations for an attack on Iran, and gold declined anyway. When gold fails to act as a safe haven on such news, this is bearish information.

Where this leaves us

Gold's rebound ended the way the 2013 rebound did, the USD Index is at new 2026 highs, and gold declined even on the war headlines. In my view, gold's next big move is likely to be down, toward about $3,500. In today's Gold Trading Alert, I also covered the mining stocks, which flashed a classic sell signal, along with stocks, copper and crude oil.

The last rebound of 2013 looked a lot like this one, and the biggest part of the slide came right after it.

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