US Dollar: Rising oil prices and Fed outlook boost USD – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that higher Oil prices are pressuring stocks and bonds while supporting a firmer Dollar. The FOMC minutes showed most participants backing another rate increase by year-end, with futures fully pricing a 25 bps hike to 4.00–4.25%. Easy US financial conditions and strong growth outperformance continue to underpin USD strength versus other currencies.

Oil, Fed minutes back stronger Dollar

"The renewed increase in crude oil prices is weighing on stocks and bonds, while underpinning a firmer USD."

"Persistently high energy prices keep risks to inflation, policy rates, and benchmark bond yields skewed to the upside, while favoring energy exporters’ currencies and USD over energy importer’s currencies. US growth outperformance and strong foreign appetite for US securities give USD an added boost."

"There was no new information from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting minutes. The key takeaway is that “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.” Fed funds futures already fully price in a full 25bps hike to 4.00-4.25% on December 9."

"The minutes also suggest US financial conditions give the Fed room to keep hiking. “Many participants commented that, despite the recent rise in longer-term Treasury yields, financial conditions appeared to be supportive of economic growth, with equity prices having risen substantially this year and spreads on corporate bonds having remained narrow.”"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold retakes $4,200 amid pre-US CPI repositioning

Gold holds firm, revisiting $4,200 on Friday, extending recovery from two-month lows. US Dollar eases in tandem with Oil prices and Treasury yields, awaiting US sentiment data. The tide seems to be turning in favor of Gold, but the daily RSI is still bearish.

Ethereum activates Glamsterdam on Sepolia testnet: Why the price is falling anyway

Ethereum (ETH) has reached a key milestone in its next major network upgrade. The planned changes aim to improve Ethereum’s Layer 1 capacity and efficiency as network activity grows. The development comes as ETH retreats toward $2,500, highlighting the contrast between the network’s long-term technical progress and its short-term market weakness.

Canada Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 6.5% as US tariffs test labor market

Statistics Canada will release its September Labour Force Survey on Friday, with markets anticipating a modest recovery in employment following August's sharp decline. The report takes on particular importance as it will be the first to fully reflect the impact of new United States tariffs that took effect on August 22.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.