Pound Sterling remains under pressure amid risk-off mood, focus is on Fed-BoE policy

Pound Sterling drops ahead of monetary policies by the Fed and the BoE.
BoE policymakers will be tested on the grounds of high inflation and bleak economic outlook.
The Fed is expected to define how it will fit 75 basis points rate reduction in 2024.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops as investors turn cautious ahead of a busy week. The GBP/USD pair falls gradually ahead of the interest rate decisions by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which are expected to leave rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row.

While the BoE is expected to hold steady, guidance on the interest rate outlook will be the key factor for further action in the Pound Sterling. The BoE is in a balancing act between vulnerable economic conditions in the domestic and the overseas market and stubborn price pressures. The maintenance of higher interest rates for a longer period by the BoE could dampen labor market and demand conditions while a dovish signal will ramp-up price pressures again.

Market mood seems broadly cautious due to Middle East tensions and Fed’s monetary policy announcement. Investors will keenly watch whether the Fed will choose the March or May meeting for the first rate cut after a prolonged “rate-tightening” campaign.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling drops further amid dismal market mood

Pound Sterling drops below the crucial support of 1.2700 as appeal fo risk-perceived assets weaken ahead of the monetary policies by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
Decision-making for BoE policymakers is expected to be very complicated as the United Kingdom economy is operating with high inflation and the economic outlook is vulnerable.
The UK economy witnessed a fall of 0.1% in growth in the third quarter of 2023 as businesses operated with lower capacity due to weak demand.
A similar performance is anticipated in the final quarter of 2023 as businesses were reluctant to utilize their full capacity or make fresh investment decisions to avoid higher interest obligations.
The UK economy would be considered to be in a technical recession if it contracts consecutively in the fourth quarter of 2023.
BoE policymakers consider core and service inflation while making decisions on interest rates, which are at 5.1% and 6.4%, significantly far from what the central bank wants, leaving no chance for consideration of a dovish decision, at least for now.
On Thursday, the BoE is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth time in a row.
It would be interesting to watch whether the BoE delivers a dovish guidance due to a deteriorating demand environment or continues to lean towards restrictive interest rates.
Meanwhile, the market mood remains quiet as investors digest Middle East tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly higher to near 103.50 from Monday’s closing but is expected to remain lacklustre as investors await the Fed policy meeting.
Like the BoE, the Fed is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.50% for the fourth straight time.
Market participants seem highly confident that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from May amid easing price pressures.
In today’s session, investors will keep the US JOLTS Job Openings data on radar. Investors anticipate that US employers posted fresh 8.75M jobs in December against 8.79M in November.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling drops below 1.2700

Pound Sterling witnesses significant offers near the crucial resistance of 1.2700 ahead of crucial economic events. On a daily time frame, the GBP/USD pair demonstrates a Descending Triangle chart pattern formation, which indicates a sharp volatility contraction but with an upside bias.

Downward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart pattern is drawn from 28 December 2023 high at 1.2827 while the horizontal support is plotted from 21 December 2023 low at 1.2612. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40-60 range, which indicates a sideways performance ahead.

Interest rates FAQs

What are interest rates?

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

How do interest rates impact currencies?

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

How do interest rates influence the price of Gold?

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

What is the Fed Funds rate?

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

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