Hungarian Forint: MNB caution offers modest HUF support - Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Hungary’s central bank, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), cut its base rate to 5.50% but avoided pre-committing to further easing, stressing that September’s Inflation Report will guide policy. The bank will monitor global rate hikes, could limit the scope. FX markets reacted positively, and Ghose concludes that MNB communication was modestly supportive for the Forint.

Cautious easing and HUF reaction

"Hungary's National Bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 25bp to 5.50% yesterday as had been unanimously expected. MNB had already signalled that there was room for further easing during the summer, before the entire rate-cutting cycle would be reconsidered using the September Inflation Report – this message was repeated yesterday, but with a twist."

"Yesterday however, MNB did not pre-commit to further easing and instead repeated that the future rate path will be decided in September based on updated forecasts."

"Varga [MNB Governor Mihály Varga] also emphasised that MNB will monitor prospective rate hikes by major central banks, which suggests that the broader global backdrop would act as a limit on Hungarian rate cuts."

"The FX market appeared to be taking the new policy guidance positively, although the rally in the forint relative to the Polish zloty was modest so far."

"That aside, our main conclusion is that MNB’s communication and guidance proved to be modestly HUF-supportive yesterday."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD holds above 0.6950 as bullish USD caps gains

AUD/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling a two-day recovery move from a two-month low, touched last week. An extended rout in the fixed income market keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the US Dollar retain its bullish tone despite receding October Fed hike bets. However, expectations for another RBA rate hike this month could act as a tailwind for the Aussie.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold recovers further from two-month low amid some USD profit-taking

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce from the $4,100 neighborhood, or a two-month low, and climbs above $4,150 during the first half of the European session. The US Dollar pauses for a breather following the recent strong rally from the September monthly swing low and offers some support to the precious metal. Adding to this, receding bets on an October Fed rate hike benefit the non-yielding bullion.

Ripple and Stellar weaken as derivatives positioning fades

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) face pressure trading below $1.499 and $0.220, respectively, on Tuesday after a modest correction at the start of the week. Traders should be cautious as weakening derivatives metrics and fading bullish momentum suggest further corrections for XRP and XLM. Derivatives data shows a weakening and cautious signal among traders.

Europe in focus as French and Spanish politics drive sentiment

There are no tier-1 releases today. Focus will remain on developments in the European markets and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. In France, the key issue in the coming days will be whether the Socialists and Marine Le Pen's National Rally signal they are willing to topple the government over the budget.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.