- GBP/JPY is on pace to clip into 205.00 as the pair machines through multi-year highs.
- A lack of notable data on Tuesday left the Guppy free to drift higher.
- UK Parliamentary Elections loom ahead on Thursday.
GBP/JPY drifted into yet another 16-year high on Tuesday, peaking near 204.85 as the pair continues to grind towards 205.00. The Japanese Yen is crumbling in broader FX markets as currency traders shrug off outright pleas and threats of direct intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF).
Tuesday was notably light on data releases for both the GBP and the JPY, giving the Guppy room to breathe and test into fresh highs as bids continue to push into ground unseen since August of 2008. The economic calendar remains thin for both currencies through the remainder of the trading week, but UK Parliamentary Elections slated for Thursday could introduce some volatility into the election run-up and after results are tallied. The UK’s Labour Party is broadly expected to sweep to a majority win according to advance polling, and Labour’s Keir Starmer is expected to replace the Conservative Party’s Tory leader Rishi Sunak as the UK’s Prime Minister.
Japanese data remains notably thin looking to the weeks ahead, leaving Yen traders to keep an eye out for one-off statements from officials as JPY speculators hunker down for the long wait to the BoJ’s next rate call, slated for July 31.
GBP/JPY technical outlook
GBP/JPY continues to lean firmly bullish as intraday price gains accelerate into the top side. The pair is set to snap the 205.00 major price handle, and the pair would have to decline a full percent just to cross back into bearish territory below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) approaching 203.00.
The Guppy has closed in the green for 12 consecutive trading days, and a long-term bullish trend with few pullbacks has left the pair deep in bull country, trading well above significant technical levels at the 200-day EMA, way below current price action at 190.54.
GBP/JPY hourly chart
GBP/JPY daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds ground as RBA leaves the door open for a hike
Tuesday's session witnessed the Australian Dollar clearing losses against the US Dollar following the release of the hawkish RBA minutes and the US JOLTs figures from May. For the USD, the confidence of Jerome Powell on inflation coming back down sooner on the prospects of a cooling labor market weakened the Greenback.
EUR/USD needs to clear the 200-day SMA for further gains
EUR/USD managed to extend its multi-session apathetic advance amidst the flattish price action in the Greenback and the majority of the risk-linked assets, all prior to the publication of key releases in the US docket on Wednesday.
Gold falls amid falling US yields, soft US Dollar
Gold price slid during the North American session as market participants digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal. Powell turned slightly dovish, yet US Treasury yields remained firm. The XAU/USD trades around $2,324.
Ethereum ETFs set for $5 billion inflows despite ETH Foundation's continuous sales
Ethereum is down more than 1.4% on Tuesday following another ETH sale from the Ethereum Foundation. Meanwhile, crypto exchange Gemini's recent report reveals that ETH ETF could see about $5 billion in net inflows within six months of launch.
Benefit of the doubt: US consumer confidence and elections
Despite widespread expectation for the US economy to be in recession in 2024, that fate has been avoided thanks to a resilient consumer. Yet it is difficult to square this undaunted spending with consumer confidence and sentiment readings that are lackluster at best.