- EUR/USD cycled within 1.0950 and 1.0900 as momentum remains capped.
- German inflation brought no surprises, US inflation spreads after headline CPI uptick.
- Midweek brings EU Industrial Production as markets brace for Thursday’s US PPI print.
The EUR/USD spent most of Tuesday cycling familiar territory, with the pair churning chart paper just north of 1.0900. Final German inflation figures printed exactly as expected, while a mixed print for US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation saw investors shrug off inflation concerns and continue to bet on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
February’s headline US CPI inflation ticked up to 0.4%, rising from the previous 0.3%, with YoY CPI inflation rising to 3.2% compared to the forecast hold at 3.1%. Core CPI numbers eased, but not as much as expected, with MoM Core CPI holding at 0.4% instead of declining to the forecast 0.3%. YoY Core CPI ticked down to 3.8% from the previous 3.9%, but missed market forecasts of 3.7%.
Wednesday’s EU Industrial Production is forecast to print at -1.5% MoM in January, down from the previous month’s 2.6%. US data hits will be taking a breather in the midweek before returning on Thursday with US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures. Core YoY US PPI is forecast to tick down slightly to 1.9% from the previous 2.0%.
US Retail Sales in February are also slated for Thursday, and are expected to recover to 0.8% after the previous -0.8% decline. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 8 is also expected to tick up slightly to 218K from 217K.
EUR/USD technical outlook
EUR/USD ended Tuesday close to where it started, seeing a shock drop near 1.0900 after US CPI figures printed, but the pair recovered into the day’s midrange near 1.0930. The EUR/USD set a fresh weekly high at 1.0980 on Monday, and the pair continues to see near-term technical support from a shortrun rising trendline.
A bullish recovery from the last major swing low into the 1.070 handle in mid-February sees the pair running out of gas north of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0836. There is a lot of chart ground to cover before bulls can reclaim the last major high above 1.1100 set back in late December.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
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