EUR/USD: Measured ECB tightening to support Euro – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities' Macro Research team expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue a measured tightening cycle, delivering a final 25bp hike in December and taking the deposit rate to 2.75%, which they see as mildly restrictive. They maintain a bullish EUR/USD year-end forecast, arguing that current market pricing overstates future tightening and that policymakers may soon push back against expectations.

TD sees final ECB hike in December

"We expect the ECB to deliver a final 25bp hike in December, taking the deposit rate to 2.75%, as resilient growth and persistent inflation pressures keep policymakers focused on returning rates to mildly restrictive territory."

"We maintain a bullish EURUSD year-end forecast and recently expressed the view via 3m risk reversal to fade the broad-based USD rally."

"OIS markets are currently pricing around 31bp of ECB tightening by end-2026 and close to 100bp cumulatively by end-2027, taking the terminal rate to nearly 3.5%, well above the 2.5% neutral rate referenced by several ECB policymakers."

"Neither we nor the broader consensus expect the ECB, or other major central banks, to validate the full extent of current market pricing."

"In our view, underlying economic data and inflation indicators remain broadly consistent with a measured tightening cycle aimed at moving policy into mildly restrictive territory."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD holds above 0.6950 as bullish USD caps gains

AUD/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling a two-day recovery move from a two-month low, touched last week. An extended rout in the fixed income market keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the US Dollar retain its bullish tone despite receding October Fed hike bets. However, expectations for another RBA rate hike this month could act as a tailwind for the Aussie.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold recovers further from two-month low amid some USD profit-taking

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce from the $4,100 neighborhood, or a two-month low, and climbs above $4,150 during the first half of the European session. The US Dollar pauses for a breather following the recent strong rally from the September monthly swing low and offers some support to the precious metal. Adding to this, receding bets on an October Fed rate hike benefit the non-yielding bullion.

Ripple and Stellar weaken as derivatives positioning fades

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) face pressure trading below $1.499 and $0.220, respectively, on Tuesday after a modest correction at the start of the week. Traders should be cautious as weakening derivatives metrics and fading bullish momentum suggest further corrections for XRP and XLM. Derivatives data shows a weakening and cautious signal among traders.

Europe in focus as French and Spanish politics drive sentiment

There are no tier-1 releases today. Focus will remain on developments in the European markets and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. In France, the key issue in the coming days will be whether the Socialists and Marine Le Pen's National Rally signal they are willing to topple the government over the budget.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.