- EUR/GBP trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day around 0.8465 on Thursday.
- The outcome of the UK general election might potentially trigger some volatility in the Pound Sterling (GBP).
- The easing inflation in the Eurozone bolstered hopes for potential rate cuts by the ECB.
The EUR/GBP cross extends the decline to near 0.8465 during the early European session on Thursday. The Euro edges lower as the softer Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation report prompted the expectation of interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB). Market players will closely monitor the UK general elections on Thursday.
The upcoming UK general elections might limit GBP movement ahead of the vote on Thursday before the results potentially trigger some volatility on the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Friday. Political analysts and surveys predict that Labour will win more seats than the record 418 it won when ex-leader Tony Blair ended 18 years of Conservative control in 1997.
On the Euro front, the far right's hopes of winning outright in the French election fell on Tuesday, as centrist and left-wing candidates reluctantly banded together to stop Marine Le Pen's National Rally from seizing power for the first time, per Politico.
Additionally, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone eased in June. The Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 2.5% YoY in June, compared to a rise of 2.6% recorded in the previous month, according to preliminary estimates from Eurostat released on Tuesday. This figure spurred the hopes for potential interest rate cuts by the ECB, which dragged the shared currency lower and created a headwind for EUR/GBP.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2750 on UK election day
GBP/USD is trading sideways near 1.2750 in the European session on Thursday. A broadly softer US Dollar keeps the pair afloat but traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the Pound Sterling, as UK voters head to polls.
EUR/USD steadies below 1.0800 ahead of ECB Accounts
EUR/USD keeps its range below 1.0800 in the European morning on Thursday. This upside is attributed to a decline in the US Dollar due to the escalated speculations of a September Fed rate cut. ECB Accounts is next in focus.
Gold trades with caution above $2,350, as focus shifts to US NFP
Gold price has reversed early gains to trade cautiously above $2,350 on Thursday. Sustained US Dollar weakness alongside sluggish US Treasury bond yields keeps the downside in Gold price capped amid the July 4 US holiday-thinned market conditions. Friday's NFP data eyed.
Binance coin poised for an 11% crash
Binance Coin breached its ascending trendline support on Wednesday and declines 3% on Thursday. On-chain analysis reveals a long-to-short ratio below one, indicating bearish sentiment and suggesting a potential price downturn for BNB in the days ahead.
Global strategy 3Q 2024
The latest economic and inflation data support a normalisation of monetary policy. The ECB started by cutting interest rates for the first time in June, while the US Fed is still waiting.