EUR/GBP appreciates to near 0.8500 as French voters boost Marine Le Pen’s National Rally

EUR/GBP gains ground as investors’ sentiment improves due to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally leading the first round of legislative elections.
Last week, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn hinted that the central bank could reduce interest rates twice more in 2024.
The UK GDP (QoQ) recorded a 0.7% expansion in Q1, marking its strongest growth in over two years and mitigating expectations of rate cuts.

EUR/GBP continues its upward trend for the third consecutive day, hovering around 0.8500 during Monday's Asian session. The Euro advances as investors’ sentiment improves amidst Marine Le Pen’s National Rally confirming its status as France’s leading political force in the initial round of legislative elections, marking the highest turnout in three decades. While Le Pen’s party secured a clear but not definitive victory, uncertainty prevails ahead of the second round of voting on July 7, as reported by France 24.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn suggested last week that the central bank might cut interest rates twice more this year. Recent data showed that France's annual inflation rate matched expectations, slowing to 2.5%, while Spain's rate fell to 3.5%, slightly above forecasts. Conversely, Italy's inflation accelerated as anticipated to 0.9%. Moreover, Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release on Monday.

In the United Kingdom (UK), the upcoming general election on Thursday may induce volatility in the EUR/GBP cross. According to the latest exit polls, the Opposition Labour Party is anticipated to prevail over the Conservative Party led by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

UK GDP (QoQ) figures have been upwardly revised, showing a 0.7% expansion in the first quarter, up from the previous quarter's 0.6% growth. This marks the strongest growth in over two years and has caused the UK's 10-year Gilt yield to rise to 4.17%, tempering expectations of rate cuts.

Inflation FAQs

What is inflation?

Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange?

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

How does inflation influence the price of Gold?

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

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