CEE FX: Zloty faces downside pressure and Leu awaits political clarity - ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky expects the NBP to delay rate hikes until early 2027, with government fuel-price measures allowing policymakers to remain patient. He sees the EUR/PLN trading range shifting higher to 4.380–4.400 amid a strong US Dollar, rising energy prices and risk aversion. In Romania, political uncertainty remains in focus, with EUR/RON expected to stabilise near current levels if a new parliamentary majority emerges.

Polish rates steady, zloty range higher

"The National Bank of Poland’s press conference with Governor Adam Glapiński initially struck a hawkish tone, highlighting inflation risks and the impact of higher energy prices. However, the key takeaway for the market is that, according to the Governor, a rate hike in November is unlikely."

"It appears the government's new measure to lower fuel prices is sufficient for the central bank for the time being, allowing the NBP to wait further. Unless inflation delivers a significant surprise in November, rate hikes will be postponed until the first quarter of 2027 – our baseline scenario."

"Elsewhere, as expected, the National Bank of Romania kept rates unchanged at 6.50%, and we did not see many new comments in the statement. We continue to monitor political negotiations in Romania. EUR/RON drifted lower yesterday following headlines, suggesting hope for a new government under technocratic leadership backed by the original coalition parties."

"Nevertheless, EUR/RON remains above 5.340 and significantly higher than the levels seen in late September, when pressure on the currency began. Should a new parliamentary majority be formed, we expect EUR/RON to stabilise at current levels rather than seeing a leu rally."

"EUR/PLN remains unchanged, but we maintain our view that the trading range will shift from 4.360-4.380 to 4.380-4.400, driven by a strong US dollar, higher energy prices, and risk-off sentiment in the eurozone."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.