Australian Dollar slips as softer inflation cools domestic rate expectations
- AUD/USD falls as the Australian Dollar remains subdued amid cooler inflation, weakening domestic interest rate expectations.
- Australia's June CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, slowing from May and missing the 4.0% market forecast.
- Middle East hostilities support the US Dollar, threatening further losses for the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD depreciates for the second successive day, trading around 0.6970 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair falls as the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to struggle following the release of domestic Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Wednesday that Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in June, compared to a 4% growth reported in May. The market forecast was a 4% print for the reported period. The monthly CPI dropped by 0.1% in June, compared to the previous reading of a 0.7% decrease, beating the estimated 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, the RBA weighted median CPI rose 3.6% YoY during the same period.
The AUD/USD pair may further lose ground as the US Dollar (USD) may find support amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which have reignited geopolitical tensions, keeping investor focus firmly on inflationary risks and the broader interest rate outlook in the United States (US).
Risk aversion escalates after an Iranian attack targeted US troops stationed across the region, with Iran firing multiple ballistic missiles toward a US base in Jordan around 5:45 pm ET. According to statements and video footage released by the US military, all of the surprise IRGC missiles were successfully intercepted. The strike is widely believed to be a direct response to recent US actions targeting Iranian navy boats.
Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Traders are currently pricing in a 30.5% chance of an immediate rate hike, an unusually high level of uncertainty so close to a policy announcement. Looking further ahead, markets are also factoring in a 76.6% probability of a rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated for longer.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
