AUD/USD climbs further beyond mid-0.6700s, nearly two-week high ahead of US Retail Sales

AUD/USD attracts some follow-through buyers and climbs to a nearly two-week high.
50 bps Fed rate cut bets, and a positive risk tone undermines the USD, lending support.
Traders look to US Retail Sales data for some impetus ahead of the Fed on Wednesday.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair gains traction for the second straight day on Tuesday – also marking the fourth day of a positive move – and climbs to a one-and-half-week high during the early part of the European session. Spot prices currently trade above mid-0.6700s, up around 0.15% for the day, as investors look to the outcome of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday for a fresh directional impetus.

Heading into the key central bank event risk, the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recent heavy losses to the lowest level since July 2023 amid bets for an oversized 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish outlook and a generally positive tone around the equity markets, turns out to be a key factor benefiting the risk-sensitive Aussie and lending some support to the AUD/USD pair.

With the latest leg up, spot prices have now rallied nearly 150 pips from the vicinity of the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, around the 0.6620 region, or a nearly four-week low touched last Wednesday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of the USD bears and suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the upside. That said, concerns about a slowdown in China could act as a headwind.

In fact, a string of downbeat Chinese data released over the weekend pointed to more economic weakness and challenges in reaching the official target of around 5% GDP growth rate in 2024. This, in turn, could act as a headwind for the China-proxy Australian Dollar (USD). Traders might also prefer to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, warranting some caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the AUD/USD pair.

Next on tap is the release of the US monthly Retail Sales figures, which, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the currency pair. The market reaction to the US macro data, meanwhile, is more likely to be limited as the focus remains glued to the crucial Fed policy decision.

Economic Indicator

Industrial Production (YoY)

Industrial output is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It shows the volume of production of Chinese Industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. A surge in output is regarded as inflationary which would prompt the People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the CNY, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.