Matt Weller, CFA, CMT
Faraday Research
Remember the so-called "Trump Trade"? Both in terms of political developments and price action, it seems like November 8th was about a half-decade ago, not just five months ago. When it comes to the stock market, traders rushed out to buy industrial, material and financial stocks, while selling health care and technology stocks.
The bearish health care thesis was fairly straightforward, given the Republicans' promises to "repeal and replace" the current health care law, but the explanations for the drop in tech stocks was always a bit more tenuous. Some traders argued that Trump's tough-on-immigration stance could deprive technology companies of the highly-skilled foreign workers on H1-B visas, while others (ourselves included) believed the post-election pullback in tech stocks was simply caused by investors taking profits the strongest names in their portfolios to chase "The Next Shiny Thing," namely financial and industrial stocks.
Regardless of the explanation for the initial drop, the tech sector has come roaring back of late. Though still far from the lofty "Tech Bubble" peak at the start of the millennium, technology stocks recently hit their highest levels relative to the broader stock market in 15 years.
Technology stocks have hardly been slacking on an absolute basis either. As the chart below shows, the technology sector ETF (XLK) made a run at its Tech Bubble peak near 54.00 earlier this month, and after a pullback, XLK is showing signs of bouncing off its 50-day MA so far this week:
Given the strong relative and absolute bullish trends in the tech sector, we'll continue to look for buying opportunities in the days and weeks to come. Top holdings in the sector include AAPL, MSFT, FB, GOOGL, T, INTC, VZ, CSCO, V, IBM, and ORCL, all of which are in our US equity universe.
This research is for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Trading on leverage involves risk of losses greater than deposits.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
USD/JPY hovers near 154.00, reverses Tokyo CPI-led slide
USD/JPY is consolidating its rebound near 154.00, having reversed the Tokyo CPI data-led slide to 153.40. The pair stays volatile, as the BoJ-Fed policy divergence remains in play while markets reposition ahead of the top-tier US PCE inflation data due later on Friday.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of key support level
Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.
The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.
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