Former US president Donald Trump has been elected as the 4th president of the United States after comfortably winning the 2024 presidential election. The Republican candidate has secured more than 270 electoral votes after winning in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Republican nominee has secured 277 electoral votes. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, obtained 224 electoral votes.
As we outlined prior to the election, markets are clearly taking the view that another spell in the Oval Office for Donald Trump is a bullish development for the US dollar.
Donald Trump’s victory will ensure a lower tax environment that should boost sentiment and spending in the near term. However, promised tariffs, immigration controls and higher borrowing costs will increasingly become headwinds through his presidential term.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the second consecutive meeting. This is a crucial event as it will happen right after the US presidential election and it directly affects families and businesses in the United States.
Bitcoin (BTC) soared over 7% to a new all-time high of $75,407 on Wednesday as Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States, the candidate that was seen as more favorable for crypto markets due to his pro-crypto stances. Technical indicators suggest BTC could head to the next target at the $78,777-$78,955 region, with reports highlighting the growing momentum of the so-called Trump trade, which is based on long positions in the US Dollar (USD), crypto, and higher Treasury yields.
European markets are in a buoyant mood following a US election that saw Donald Trump sweep to power, casting aside any of the polling doubts that had recently emerged. Despite concerns around the potential implications for trade between the countries, we have seen widespread optimism that Trump’s pro-business stance will lift all boats. However, the one standout loser in all of this comes from the China region, with the Hang Seng falling over 2% as traders reacted to the increased chance that we will see a raft of protectionist tariffs imposed on exports into the US.
The fact that Trump did not mention tariffs or global trade in his victory speech is helping to boost risk sentiment, however, it is early days and there will be plenty of time in the future for Trump to talk about trade barriers.
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The 2024 US election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
The winning candidate will begin a four-year term in the White House in January 2025 following the election.
In the United States, elections are usually defined between the two main parties, the Republican party and the Democratic party. Each nominates a presidential candidate by holding a series of state primaries and/or caucuses. There are differences between the parties, and the process varies from one state to another.
One of the biggest polling days is known as Super Tuesday, so-called because more than a dozen states hold their primary contests on that day. This year, it took place on March 5.President Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year and has won enough support to secure the Democratic Party nomination despite some long-shot challenges.
In the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump saw off his last remaining challenger, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, and has won enough primary contests to propel him over the finish line to be nominated the Republican candidate. Some independent candidates are also running for president, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr, nephew to former president John F. Kennedy.
Candidates compete for 538 electoral college votes, with 270 needed to win. Each state's electoral votes, based partly on population, are won by the candidate who wins the most votes there. The winner-takes-all rule applies in most states, meaning the leading candidate receives all of that state's electoral votes. Since most states lean toward one party, attention focuses on battleground states, where either candidate could win.
18-year-old or older US citizens can vote in the presidential election held every four years.
The time between elections and the inauguration in the US is called the "lame duck period." A president becomes a lame duck after a successor is elected, during which the outgoing and incoming presidents usually transition power.
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0500 in Tuesday's European morning as US President-elect Trump’s tariff plans dampen the market sentiment and keep the US Dollar broadly bid. The Euro struggles due to growing Euro area economic concerns and increased dovish ECB bets.
GBP/USD struggles near 1.2550 in European trading on Tuesday, following a slump to the 1.2500 area. The US Dollar holds on to modest gains amid Trump's tariffs threat-driven cautious mood, keeping the pair undermined ahead of BoE Pill's speech and Fed Minutes.
Gold price struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday bounce from the $2,600 neighborhood, or over a one-week low and retains a negative bias for the second straight day on Tuesday. Trump's tariff threat drove some haven flows and offered some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
Pres-elect Trump reprised the ability from his first term to change the course of markets with a single post – this time from his Truth Social network; Threatening 25% tariffs "on Day One" against Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% against China.
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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