Trading masterclass: You don't take a surfboard to a snowstorm – Is your trading any different?

It's the same story.

I've spoken with several people in the past week about their trading.

Let's start with some context.
Before entering the industry, I was a retail trader facing the same challenges:

Navigating a minefield of 'how-to' advice from those who haven't figured out consistent profitability.

Here's a quick summary of those conversations.

• Age bracket: 40-60.

• Trading experience: 4-8 years.

• Problem: Not consistently profitable.

Cause of the problem?

Taking a surfboard to a snowstorm. Let's break it down.

The harsh reality is that despite winning trades, you’re not consistently profitable. Why?

Losing traders fund winning traders. Hold that thought:

A few winning trades ignite a powerful feeling: Hope.

You feel trading successfully is within your grasp. It's a powerful force.

It's so powerful that you're still trading after four, eight, or even more years without consistent profitability. Sound familiar?

There's a saying in the casino business: 'Keep 'em coming back to the tables.' Maybe you've heard it?

You need those wins to keep coming back. Without them, you'll walk away feeling Hope-Less.

But if you have some wins, you keep trading.

Over four, eight or more years, your losses to pay winning traders are exponentially greater than the losses of those who walk away early.

That's why you're winning some of the time. Because the market needs you at the 'tables'.

Often, this is mistaken for 'I’m so close to turning the corner.' Let me clarify:

I don't win at trading because of superior technical analysis skills, reading price action, using a profile or footprint, seeing order flow, or trading off a DOM.

Everyone can do all that

It's like bringing a surfboard to a snowstorm. To win consistently, you need the right solution.

I'll outline the skills in a moment. But first, let me show you how they apply to actual trading (from Tuesday).

We don't need to go too deep, just enough to illustrate how differently I approach trading compared to most people.

Before placing a trade, I first understand what the market is saying.

One

A large group of short sellers is taken marginally offside (when the price moves to the upper white dotted line) but not far enough to spook them out of their positions.

As the price moves lower, they feel the threat has passed.

Some sellers will now increase their short positions. New short sellers will enter due to the lower perceived threat.

If the price reaches a level where the majority are onside (pink arrow), late short sellers will enter, and existing short sellers will tighten their stops.

It all depends on how safe they feel.

In the short term, it’s a chance to join the crowd on the short side (pink boxes). Why?

Statistically, the odds favor the market continuing in one direction.

But since short-selling is just the appetiser and not the main course, I've included a chart of these executions at the end.

Two

The higher-up range (see 'trap here') is where large participants have no interest in trading. But the short sellers don't know it.

If the price moves here, shorts face a brutal short-covering rally, forced to exit at higher prices.

This lack of interest in taking the other side of their trades creates immense pressure on the price, causing a near-vertical explosive move to the upside.

Short sellers then compete to exit at prices much worse than anticipated.

Three

The trade I'm describing is the right trade to go big on (unsuitable for most trades).

To go big, I must enter before the market thrusts upward rapidly.

Otherwise, I’ll end up paying higher prices, just like the short sellers. Make sense?

Four

What if I'm wrong? Without a crystal ball, I must enter at the right moment to limit losses to a paper cut.

This is a learned skill, but what do you notice about the entry below?

Before the trade 'takes off,' there's no uncomfortable, account-threatening drawdown.

Earlier, I traded shorts with less size. It’s a different opportunity.

There were three separate short trades. One was scratched; the others included partial profit-taking and adding back before getting flat.

What's your next move?

Once you realise you're playing the wrong game, you stop if reaching consistent profitability is your priority.
You might quit trading because developing this skill is daunting unless you’re truly passionate.

But If trading resonates with you deeply, you want the instruction, guidance, and support to take your game to the next level. Agree?

It makes perfect sense

As in any elite competition, winning at trading requires more than surface-level thinking. Right?

Here’s a brief list I shared to illustrate what it involves.

As you familiarise yourself with the list, notice how each skill played a role in the trading discussed?

• Focus on understanding how, why, and when your opponents will act (Game Theory)
• Avoid absolutes: Work with the assumption that you are only correct to a degree and make high % choices.
• Consider branches of outcomes, not just a single path.
• Engage in problem-solving within a nuanced, complex, and variable environment.
• Map out multi-move strategies: Anticipate permutations and how they evolve with new data.
• Learn the language the market speaks.

Guess what?

These skills improve once you reach around 50 years of age.

There are plenty of young traders with lightning-fast reflexes that you can't compete with. But you don't need to.

Instead, you beat them by out-thinking them due to your superior problem-solving skills.

Summary

In summary, this is how you transform yourself—as a trader and person.

It’s not just about changing your approach but cultivating a new trading identity that fosters deeper confidence within yourself.

This profound shift in self-belief paves the way for a more assured version of you.

When you discuss trading, your significant other, colleagues, or friends will notice newfound clarity and conviction in your words.

Remember, only a fraction of traders 'make it.' This transformation places you in that rare group.