EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD clings to small gains near 1.1750
Following a short-lasting correction in the early European session, EUR/USD regains its traction and clings to moderate gains at around 1.1750 on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting this weeks key data releases from the US and the ECB policy announcements.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD trades at 1.1755, up for the day. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, all rising, underscoring a bullish setup. The pair holds above these averages, with the 20 SMA at 1.1719 offering nearby support and the 100 SMA at 1.1627 underpinning the broader trend. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its midline and edges higher, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 67, keeping the upside bias intact and hinting at additional gains ahead.
In the daily chart, EUR/USD develops above all its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA edging higher but still below the flattening 100-day SMA, the latter at 1.1644. Finally, the 200-day SMA resumes its advance below the shorter ones. The Momentum indicator stays above 0 but loses upward strength, while the RSI aims modestly higher above 70, falling short of suggesting upward exhaustion. A pullback would test the 100-day/20-day SMA band, while sustained strength could extend the advance.
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1750 on Monday, with the US Dollar (USD) under mild near-term pressure early in the American session. The Greenback managed to trim part of its last week's losses throughout the first half of the day, although gains remained shallow, with EUR/USD sliding to 1.1726 before turning back north. Generally speaking, financial markets remain optimistic, leaving the safe-haven USD on the back foot.
Hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver additional rate cuts in 2026 fueled the positive mood, despite officials’ cautious stance. Further clarity on the matter will come this week, as the United States (US) will release first-tier employment and inflation data. The country will release the November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will include some October figures, on Tuesday, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Thursday.
In the meantime, the EU published October Industrial Production early on Monday, which rose by 0.8% in the month, improving from the previous 0.2% advance and better than the 0.1% anticipated by market participants. The US has little to offer other than the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and a couple of Fed speakers.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US employment, inflation data to shape market mood Premium
The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh monthly high of 1.1762 in the second week of December, closing it with gains a handful of pips below the level. The advance was solely related to the US Dollar weakness, which was triggered by poor American data and the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD clings to small gains near 1.1750
Following a short-lasting correction in the early European session, EUR/USD regains its traction and clings to moderate gains at around 1.1750 on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting this weeks key data releases from the US and the ECB policy announcements.
GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.3400 ahead of US data and BoE
GBP/USD reverses its direction and advances toward 1.3400 following a drop to the 1.3350 area earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to gather recovery momentum as markets await Tuesday's Nonfarm Payrolls data, while the Pound Sterling holds steady ahead of the BoE policy announcements later in the week.
Gold pulls away from session high, holds above $4,300
Gold loses its bullish momentum and retreats below $4,330 after testing $4,350 on Monday. XAU/USD, however, stays in positive territory as the US Dollar remains on the back foot on growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy outlook next year.
Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying
Solana price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout. On the institutional side, demand for spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds remained firm, pushing total assets under management to nearly $1 billion since launch.
Big week ends with big doubts
The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and WikipediaJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and WikipediaECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
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About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).