Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH holds above $2,400 as PPI data strengthens rate hike expectations

Ethereum price today: $2,440

• Ethereum held above $2,400 as markets increasingly price in a Fed rate hike next week after higher-than-expected PPI data.
• US spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $34.7 million Wednesday, recovering from $24 million in outflows during Tuesday's trading session.
• ETH is testing the 20-day EMA support.

Ethereum (ETH) is down 0.7% on Thursday as the second-largest cryptocurrency looks to recover from earlier pressure following the release of stronger US inflation data.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% in August, matching market expectations after a revised 0.1% increase in July, according to the US Labor Department. On a yearly basis, PPI inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%.

Energy prices were a major contributor to the increase, rising 4.2% as oil prices climbed. Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, also increased 0.4% during the month.

The PPI data comes ahead of Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could further influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at its September 15-16 meeting.

Markets have increasingly priced in tighter monetary policy, with Polymarket data showing a 62% probability of a rate hike next week and a 71% chance of an increase by October.

Traders also expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to raise rates in his first policy move, marking a significant shift from earlier expectations.

Higher interest rates could weigh on Ethereum, which has seen increased retail selling following its recovery in late August. Although the top altcoin has consolidated, institutional demand remains key to a sustained move higher.

Ethereum ETF demand remains positive amid macro pressures

US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $34.75 million in net inflows on Wednesday, extending a period of positive demand even as ETH has traded largely sideways over the past two weeks. The inflows helped offset Tuesday's outflows, which totaled $24 million, according to SoSoValue data.

Weekly Ethereum ETFs inflows also slowed to $218.4 million last week, suggesting that institutional demand has lost some momentum after recording a yearly high of $824 million the previous week.

Meanwhile, retail investors distributed a combined 307,000 ETH last week, far exceeding the 82,000 ETH whales accumulated. At the same time, Ethereum’s price growth has outpaced the increase in open interest, suggesting long traders remain hesitant to support the recent move with fresh capital.

Ethereum technical outlook: ETH tests 20-day EMA and $2,431 support

Ethereum saw $88 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, driven by $73.2 million in long liquidations, according to Coinglass data.

On the daily chart, ETH holds a constructive bullish bias as it consolidates above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,405 and comfortably above the 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, which cluster from roughly $2,223 to $2,256. This positioning suggests the broader uptrend remains intact despite the latest pause.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 keeps a positive tilt, but it shows momentum moderating from prior overbought extremes, and the Stochastic Oscillator easing toward mid-range hints at a cooling rather than a reversal of bullish pressure.

On the downside, ETH is testing the 20-day EMA and the $2,431 horizontal level, which acts as immediate underlying demand. Deeper demand is expected near the 50- and 200-day EMAs around $2,223–$2,256, before the prior structural shelf close to $2,172. Further south, $1,961 and $1,810 line up as broader trend supports if sellers gain more control.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier around $2,545, followed by $2,626 and then $2,787. A daily close above these successive caps would reopen the path toward higher highs and reinforce the prevailing bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)