Weekly column: Retrograde chaos unleashed Trump's tariffs and global markets

Review

Financial markets expected a significant tax increase from US President Trump. Yesterday’s reaction shows the tax increase was worse than anticipated. US dollar weakness is telling. We often hear that when the US sneezes the global economy catches cold. This is not the US sneezing. This is the US cutting off its own arm. The self-inflicted economic cost naturally weakens the dollar. .. For now, US recession risks have risen.

— Dr. Paul Donovan, UBS Morning Comment, www.ubs.com/ci, April 4, 2025.

 There is no delicate way to say it. Last week was an utter blood bath. Almost nothing was spared as traders (and governments) came to grips with the potential implications of Trump’s tariff plan. Stock markets around the world sold off sharply, and NASDAQ got hit particularly hard. This week’s sell-off has it down over 21% from its February high. Gold tried to hang in there but eventually fell almost $170 from early week highs. Silver faired much worse, experiencing a $6 move lower from Wednesday’s intraday high to Friday’s low. This has now taken Silver back to below $30 an ounce for the first time since the start of the year.

It wasn’t much better for commodities, either. Crude Oil plunged almost $12 a barrel from Wednesday’s high to a low of 60.45 on Friday. This is now below the May 2023 low, which raises some very bearish concerns moving forward. If you name any commodity, it was probably lower on the week. Even the unrelenting bull run in Live Cattle (pun definitely intended) showed some cracks by finishing limit down on Friday. However, there was one shining beacon of hope, and that was the Corn market. Against the backdrop of market mayhem, Corn finished the week with a modest 3-cent gain! (don’t laugh; after a week like this, a win is a win!).

In other markets, Bonds seemed to catch a little bit of that old-school “flight to safety” bid and finished the week strong. Bitcoin held up reasonably well, finishing mostly unchanged for the week. The Dollar sold off sharply on Wednesday and Thursday but recouped some of those losses with a strong reversal on Friday. The most interesting currency was probably the Australian dollar which plunged almost 5% on Friday alone. This is a massive one-day move for a major currency.

Short-term geocosmics

How it started:

“April 2nd, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn,” Trump said in remarks from the Rose Garden. ” This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history. It’s our declaration of economic independence…. But now it’s our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt, and it’ll all happen very quickly.”

— Eric Revell, “What to Know About President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs,” www.cnbc.com, April 3, 2025.

How it’s going:

President Trump said there would be “a little disturbance” from his tariffs, but how does he define little?

… Congress has circumscribed the President’s power to impose tariffs, allowing it on imports that threaten national security (Section 232) or in response to “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits (Section 122), a surge of imports that harms U.S. industry (201), and discriminatory trade practices (301). None of these trade provisions empowers Mr. Trump to impose tariffs on all imports from all countries based on an arbitrary formula. Section 122 lets a President impose tariffs of up to 15% in response to trade deficits, but Congress must approve them after 150 days. Someone should sue to block his abuse of power.

—The Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal, “ Trump and His ‘Little Disturbance From Tariffs,” April 3, 2025.

When Ray first used the term “Retrograde Chaos” to describe the period from December 6, 2024, to April 12, 2025 (a period of time when all three personal planets were in retrograde motion), he sure wasn’t kidding! The newly elected leadership of the US seems to be taking on less of a leadership role on the global stage. This has undoubtedly caused confusion and uncertainty for parts of the world, forcing countries into action to fill this newly created void. Now, with the implementation of Trump’s tariff policy, there truly seems to be a sense of “chaos” with the natural order of things. Or at least with how things were once thought to be. Alliances seem to be breaking down. Global trade is breaking down. Financial markets are melting. It truly is a chaotic time.

But now we find ourselves closer to the end of this chaotic retrograde period than the beginning. Mercury will be returning to direct motion on April 7 with Venus set to turn back direct on April 12. It is never wise to start something or implement a new strategy during a retrograde period like this (Trump really could use an astrologer on his team). It wouldn’t shock me to see lawsuits filed against the Trump administration, as stated in the editorial quote above. We may even see the repeal of some or all of Trump’s tariffs in the not-too-distant future because of it. In this case, one would hope there isn’t too much damage already done.

As for markets, we will be watching this period (April 7-12) for potential sharp reversals. Something similar happened between Mars turning direct on February 23 and Venus stationing retrograde on March 1. Many markets bottomed during this time and produced healthy rallies. Ray will be covering these possibilities in this weekend’s webinar. See below for details.

Longer-term thoughts

In the previous column, I was asked to author (yup, I got another “tap on the shoulder”); I mentioned the coming Saturn/Neptune conjunction and its correlation to droughts over major grain-producing regions of the World (US, Russia/Ukraine, Australia, etc.). The study I presented at the MMA Investment Retreat in Lake Bled, Slovenia, was particularly focused on the Wheat market, but it can possibly be extrapolated into other consumable agricultural commodities such as Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, etc. as well.

My findings were that during Saturn/Neptune conjunctions and oppositions, a supply-reducing drought occurred over a major wheat-producing area of the world within a reasonable amount of time surrounding the aspect. Because of this, the price of Wheat would embark on a robust rally, usually topping out 0-2 years later.

The correlation goes back to the 1800s, but let’s start with the 1930s. Saturn and Neptune formed three oppositions between 1936 and 1937. This was during the “Dust Bowl” in which successive drought years decimated crops in the United States. The Wheat price hit a high in 1937. Saturn then formed three conjunctions with Neptune between 1952 and 1953. Similar to the 1930s, this was a time of successive drought in the US that led to a top in Wheat in 1955. The Saturn/Neptune oppositions that formed in 1971-1972 were different in the fact that drought took hold over the old Soviet Union at the time. This drought was particularly bad and forced the Soviet Union to hit the world market, where it bought up all the grain reserves it could find. This would later become known as “The Great Grain Robbery.” As a direct result, Wheat prices spiked violently, topping in 1974. The 1989 Saturn/Neptune conjunctions correlated with the 1988 US drought (the worst since the 1930s) which led to a top in Wheat prices early in 1989. The most recent Saturn/Neptune oppositions occurred during 2006-2007. Whilst not a severe drought, enough areas were impacted by lack of rainfall to bring overall yields down. This was also during the time when the commodity bubble was in full swing before being pricked by the great financial crisis. Wheat then hit an all-time high in 2008.

The next Saturn/Neptune conjunction takes place in February 2026. While it only transpires as a single pass this time around, it should be noted that the two planets will come to within a degree of exactness in June-August 2025. What’s also interesting about this coming conjunction is that it takes place with both planets positioned at 1 degree of fiery Aries. Does this fact add to the possibility of another drought developing over a major grain hub? Or does this mean the supply of Wheat (food) could be impacted in some other way, perhaps by an escalation of war or a perceived threat to food security?

The answers to these questions will come in time. All we can do now is be aware of possible outcomes. With Wheat and other grain/ag markets near multi-year lows, it might not be a bad idea to add those markets to your quote page, even if it’s at the very bottom. As Saturn and Neptune do their dance in the sky, those markets just might make it to the top of your list in a few years!