Review
The U.S. economy continued its recent strong stretch this summer…. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, adjusted for seasonality and inflation, the Commerce Department said Wednesday…. That was a slight slowdown from the second quarter’s 3% rate and below economists’ expectations for a 3.1% pace. Still, the July-to-September period marked a continuation of a roughly two-year streak of strong growth for the U.S. economy even in the face of historically high borrowing costs.
—Harriet Torry, “U.S. Economic Growth Extends Solid Streak,” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2024.
Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020 as the impacts of storms in the Southeast and a significant labor impasse dented the employment picture. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000…. In what had already been expected to be a downbeat report, October posted the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.1%, in line with expectations.
—Jeff Cox, U.S. Economy Added Just 12,000 Jobs in October,” www.cnbc.com. November 1, 2024.
It was a rough week for most global stock indices. Yet, this is consistent with my prior observations that U.S. stock indices tend to sell off rather sharply into a low within two weeks of the Presidential Election. That appears to have happened last week and might still be underway.
In Asia and the Pacific Rim, India’s Nifty Index continues to struggle near the lows of the last 12 weeks. Japan’s Nikkei looked positive with gaps up early in the week, but on Friday, it gapped down over 1000 points and created a chart pattern known as a “bearish island reversal.” China and Hong Kong’s markets basically went sideways in the middle of the range, covering the recent huge rally. Australia’s ASX index fell to a 7-week low. Just two weeks ago, it was at an all-time high.
In Europe, the mood was bleaker. On October 31, the Netherlands AEX, London FTSE, and Zurich SMI all fell to 12-week lows. The German DAX index was stronger, only falling to a 3-week low.
The U.S. stock indices were an enigma. The NASDAQ had been the only major index not to have made a new all-time high in October. But last week, it was the only index to make a new record high. The DJIA and S&P fell to multi-week lows after their recent all-time highs on October 17-18. Thus, a case of intermarket bearish divergence ended, but then a new one began.
Short-term geocosmics and longer-term thoughts
Regardless of the winner, this election has produced an emerging political reality: The country is moving to the right, or at least center-right, and is likely to stay there. I don’t believe this drift is directly attributable to Mr. Trump himself. He rode it, but didn’t cause a tectonic shift in America’s politics. The highly politicized idea of “wokeness” is in broad decline, a victim of its own unreflective overreaching and intolerance on questions of equity, gender and climate. The U.S. has had enough of its endless “demands.”
—Daniel Henninger, “Trump’s a ‘Fascist.’ Harris Is ‘Stupid.’ An Election from the Bottom of the Barrel Is Almost Over.” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2024.
“Presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales of an election. . . . What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias. . . . Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one. Eugene Meyer, publisher of The Washington Post from 1933 to 1946, thought the same, and he was right. By itself, declining to endorse presidential candidates is not enough to move us very far up the trust scale, but it’s a meaningful step in the right direction.”
—Jeff Bezos, op-ed in the Washington Post, which he owns, explaining why the Post did not endorse Kamala Harris or any candidate this year, October 28, 2024.
Anyone who claims to know what’s going to happen is lying. But people wish they had a better choice. “They don’t want him in there, and can’t see her there.” That’s why it’s close… He’s too crazy for me, they’re too extreme. He’s mad, bad and dangerous to know. She and her party continue to move too damagingly to the left.… Here is an institution we helped this year—unknowingly, without really meaning to…. In this messy monster of a campaign we enlivened and perhaps even revitalized democracy. It’s the big story underneath the big story.
—Peggy Noonan, “A Great Democracy Faces a Bad Choice,” Wall Street Journal, October 31, 2024.
It’s nobody’s business but my own
Well it ain’t nobody’s, no, no, it ain’t
It ain’t nobody’s business
It’s nobody’s business but my own—Irving Taylor, “Ain’t Nobody’s Business But My Own,” Kiss Music Company, 1950.
It appears elections have consequences. Rather, the perception of election results also has consequences, as noted by market behavior this past week. Prior to last week, Trump was steamrolling ahead. But by the middle of the week, the election was back to a dead heat. Trump’s early October bump related to transiting Jupiter (stationary) on October 9, very close to his natal Sun in Gemini, is starting to fade as the great benefic (Jupiter) begins pulling back under its retrograde motion. Will there be enough juice left to carry him to victory?
The same could be asked of Kamala Harris, whose Gemini ascendant is also close to transiting Jupiter. It is pulling back now as well. Furthermore, as outlined in this column, she had her peak of support in August-September when her progressed Moon conjoined the U.S. natal Sun. But now that conjunction started separating as of mid-September when polls had her leading. Can she last it out another week? Sure, they both can. And that’s why any astrologer or pundit who claims they know who will win just doesn’t know that they don’t know. There are astrological studies – correlations to past election cycles – that support both candidates, as discussed last week. But no matter. Once the election is over, half the pundits who guessed right will claim paranormal, clairvoyant powers. That’s life when you see astrology as entertainment or fortune-telling. It’s much more than that. It has value to societies beyond that.
In reality, predictions are just information, not truth. However, if the source of that information has a reliable track record for accuracy and also derives their outlook based on actual correlative studies (say 80%), then it has value in the sense that one can make a plan based on higher-than-normal probabilities.
As far as the astrological conditions of next week, they look tense. The war-like, “take-no-prisoners, show-no-mercy” aspect of Mars changing signs from Cancer to Leo and in opposition to Pluto is nothing to mess around with. This is a dynamic that could coincide with confrontations, even violence, and one would be wise to avoid potentially dangerous and explosive situations. On top of that, the Moon will ingress into Sagittarius starting November 3, the sign of exaggeration and “no holds barred,” while at the same time, Venus will be in opposition to Jupiter, ruler of the Sagittarius Moon sign. Things could get out of control, even violent, this weekend through early next week. This combination is already manifesting in the burning of ballot boxes in some states, which is a typical expression (arson, destruction of property) under a Mars/Pluto-hard aspect.
Markets won’t like it if no decisive winner is announced rather quickly. In that case, stock markets could fall, perhaps into the next Level 1 signature, which is Saturn turning direct on November 15, which is also a Full Moon. That is still within two weeks of the election when lows in U.S. stock indices tend to happen if they didn’t just happen last Thursday, October 31, on Halloween.
This is Scorpio season. In fact, Friday, November 1, is a New Moon in Scorpio. Mars and Pluto co-rule Scorpio. The dynamics of a New Moon can also last up to two weeks. You don’t want to take risks to your safety under a Mars/Pluto hard aspect or under a Scorpio New or Full Moon. Play it safe. Scorpio is excellent for intimacy and deep conversations. Make love, avoid war. And keep your vote—and all secrets and private matters—to yourself. It’s nobody’s business but your own. Scorpios’ rule. Respect it.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day. No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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