USD/CHF loses ground, where next for Natural Gas futures?

USD/CHF loses ground after exciting rally

USDCHF experienced its fastest daily rally in a couple of months on Tuesday, advancing by 1.2% to chart an almost one-month high of 0.9397.

Despite the strong bullish momentum, the price could not crawl back above the broken support trendline from the 2021 lows, sliding back to the red zone on Wednesday.

A bullish bias has yet to be confirmed as the RSI keeps hovering below its 50 neutral mark, while the MACD, although above its red signal line, is still dipped in the negative area.

If the decline continues below the 0.9300 psychological mark, the bears will attempt to re-activate the downtrend from November’s highs below the 0.9200 level. This is where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 uptrend is positioned. Hence, an extension lower could fortify selling pressures likely towards the 0.9155 constraining zone, while a more aggressive decline could retest the 2022 bottom around 0.9090 and the 78.6% Fibo zone of 0.9055.

Alternatively, a bounce back above the key support-turned-resistance trendline and the 0.9400 number could initially take a rest near the 50% Fibonacci barricade of 0.9450 before accelerating towards the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.9555. Running higher, the pair will push for a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci number of 0.9616, where the constraining line from June happens to be.

In short, USDCHF has not escaped the bearish area yet despite its latest exciting upturn. For that to happen, the price will need a sustainable recovery above 0.9400 and beyond 0.9450. 

Where next for Natural Gas futures?

Natural gas futures (February delivery) have been in the red almost every single day since mid-December, having almost snapped the 2022 ascent to chart a new low of 3.88 on Tuesday.

The price is currently trading 60% below the August peak of 9.95, but hopes for an upside reversal are now gaining strength as the market is nearing its 2022 base of 3.85-3.48 and the RSI and the stochastics are fluctuating within the oversold territory.

If the bears stay in power, squeezing the market below that threshold, selling tendencies may intensify towards the 3.20-3.00 zone, where the price pivoted a couple of times during 2021. Even lower, some congestion could emerge near the 2.70 handle.

Should the price bounce on 2022 lows, the bulls will initially push for a close above the nearby 4.30 border and then attempt to pierce through the broken support trendline from 2020 lows at 4.77. If they succeed, the recovery could pick up steam towards the 2022 key support area of 5.30, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) currently lies. Another victory at this point could trigger a sharp increase to 6.00.

In brief, although the bearish trajectory in natural gas futures remains well intact, some recovery cannot be ruled out as the decline looks overdone near the 2022 bottom area.