Trump concedes defeat after Democrats win both chambers in a wave beyond every forecast

EU mid-market update: US futures rally as Trump concedes defeat after Democrats win both chambers in a wave beyond every forecast, with Texas may pause new data-centre permits into late 2027; AMD guides FY27 Rev up more than 80%; Oracle cancels Tencent’s $7B chip lease as Meta sells 38-year euro bonds.

The brief

- Democrats won a midterm wave larger than any forecast, with projections of about 55 Senate and 258 House seats, and markets treated it as a sign of lower Treasury supply: Nasdaq futures pared >2% drop back into positive territory in premarket, while the 5-year yield and dollar fell. The bigger risk to AI capex is now state-level permitting after Democratic wins in Texas, Georgia, and other data-centre hubs, though AMD guided FY27 revenue growth above 80% with demand still exceeding supply. France’s €23.9B deficit slippage and weak services PMI raise the stakes for Thursday’s OAT auction. European earnings were mixed, with Novo Nordisk raising its outlook on GLP-1 sales, Ahold Delhaize cutting guidance after a cyberattack, and BMW roughly in line.

Observations in full

- The midterm wave was larger than any forecast and now ranks with 1994, 2006 and 2010. NYT projections point to about 55 Senate seats and 258 House seats for Democrats. Consensus had been 53-54 and 225-230, and forecast medians were 233 and 241, with an 80% band that topped out at 245. A gain of more than 40 House seats from 215 compares with a 1934-2022 average midterm loss of 27 seats for the president’s party. AP called the Senate shortly before midnight. Democrats won every closely watched race: the expected narrow wins in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina, the toss-ups in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, and South Carolina, where Graham had been expected to hold on. Mississippi is tied at 48.9% with 96.6% counted, after a 10-point Republican win in 2020. Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932, and Texas elected both Talarico, its first Democratic senator since 1988, and Hinojosa as governor, who beat Abbott 53% to 46%. The counts tracked the final polls closely, so the surprise came from turnout. The Rio Grande Valley swung back to 60-70% Democratic, two years after Hidalgo gave Trump the first Republican presidential win there since 1972. Voters aged 18-29 went Democratic 72 to 25, although those 65 and over made up 35% of the electorate and voted Republican. Trump’s approval in exit polls was 38%, and Polymarket’s odds of House impeachment articles by June 2027 rose to 60% from 45%. Alaska shows Peltola at 54.1% with only 21.6% counted, against a poll average of Peltola +1.8, so the margin should narrow, and Nebraska has Ricketts ahead 49.0% to 45.1%.

- The market traded the result as lower Treasury supply rather than an AI shock. Nasdaq futures fell as much as 2.4% as Texas and South Carolina went Democratic, then recovered to about -0.4% to -0.6% after Trump spoke. He told the NYT he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results (“we’ll probably work something out”) and called the Iran war a “very wise decision”. He also told the FT that post-midterm strikes on Iran were unlikely. The 5-year Treasury yield fell as much as 9bps to 4.68%, and the dollar weakened against every G10 currency. With the vote out of the way, the October overhang is down to the Anthropic IPO, still to price before Thanksgiving. Treasury estimated Q1 borrowing at $800B, and any coupon cuts at today’s 08:30 ET refunding are expected to fall on the 20- and 30-year. Congress returns Nov 9 and funding lapses after Dec 11, with only 3 of 12 FY27 appropriations bills through the House. Republicans are weighing a year-end debt-limit increase so a Democratic House cannot use it as leverage. The bigger risk for equities is a 2029 tax bill. A Senate at 55 seats gives Democrats enough of a cushion to hold the chamber in 2028. A presidential win would then bring full control, and reconciliation needs only 51 votes. With deficits near 6% of GDP, Democrats are floating the increases their W-2 voters would notice least: a higher corporate rate and a cap on the 20% pass-through deduction. Raising the corporate rate from 21% to 28% cuts after-tax profit by about 9% for a company paying the full statutory rate, which hits domestic small caps harder than megacaps with large foreign income. The pass-through cap would also reach REIT dividends, which qualify for the same deduction. Brown’s Ohio win fills the rest of Vance’s term, so that seat is on the ballot again in 2028, and Kansas’s Hamilton has said he will not back Schumer.

- The most market-relevant results came at state level, where Democrats took the governor’s race in nearly every big data-centre state: Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Iowa and New Mexico. In Washington, Democrats remain well short of the 67 Senate and 290 House votes needed to override a veto, so federal AI rules depend on Republican votes. The Senate voted 99-1 in July 2025 to strip a moratorium on state AI laws, which leaves the states in charge. Texas’s current permit freeze ends after ERCOT’s mid-December audit, and Abbott holds office until Jan 19. Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium until new laws take effect, normally Sept 1, 2027, which implies about 7.5 months without new state permits. One sell-side estimate puts 13.3GW of announced Texas projects at risk, though projects under construction or already permitted keep moving and 2027 deliveries largely hold. No market had priced Patrick losing the lieutenant governorship to Goodwin, 51.7% to 45.9%. ERCOT’s board is picked by a committee with one appointee each from the governor, lieutenant governor and House speaker, so Democrats now hold two of the three appointments and would hold all three if they win the 14 seats needed to flip the Texas House. In Georgia, utility commission races that were tied in August went Democratic by 10-13 points, giving the commission its first Democratic majority since 2002, with a large-load queue of about 69GW against 10GW approved. In Ohio, Ashville voters overturned a signed agreement for two EdgeConneX campuses, and restrictive measures led in 30 of 35 counted contests nationally. The backlash was bipartisan before the vote, since Abbott imposed the freeze himself, and data centres are now among the largest sources of state tax revenue. Tougher terms on cost sharing, curtailment and connection fees therefore look more likely than outright bans. Every month of delay on new projects makes power that is already connected more valuable, which favours Vistra’s nuclear contracts with Amazon and Meta over utilities whose plans assume new load: Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP, Southern, FirstEnergy and Exelon.

- Oil is caught between the Qeshm strikes and rising Gulf exports. Brent settled 1.1% lower at $103.60 on Tuesday after a range of more than $6. It rose more than $1 on the WSJ report of the Qeshm strike and gave it back as Iran called the US response to its demands not “satisfactory”. The supply side is loosening. Exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rose 10% in October to more than 15M b/d, Aramco says it will maximise output this quarter, and Dubai’s front timespread has moved into contango. Iranian exports remain effectively halted. Trump’s threat of post-midterm strikes is now being tested after an election that removed his congressional majority. TD Securities sees fair value at $90-100, with any premium above that resting on the conflict.

- AI funding is being hit by geopolitics and is moving into longer debt. The FT reports Oracle has cancelled Tencent’s lease of about 100,000 advanced chips for five years in South-East Asian data centres, a deal worth about $7B with roughly 30% paid upfront. The lease was legal under US rules for offshore cloud. Oracle gave it up within days of selling stock at an 11% discount and of the FT’s report that Nvidia told data-centre clients most of their customers must be non-Chinese. Meta filed for a six-tranche euro deal running out to 38 years, a week after S&P moved it to a negative outlook and Alphabet guided its 19-year euro tranche at about 205bps over swaps. Hyperscalers are adding long-dated supply just as Treasury considers cutting its own, so pension and insurance buyers are being offered corporate AI credit in place of sovereign duration. Mitsubishi Corp announced a ¥1T buyback, about 6% of its shares, as Japan’s trading houses all beat.

- AMD guided FY27 revenue growth above 80% and said demand is still higher than supply, so supply is the main limit on its numbers. The Q4 guide of $17B ±3% is +27% q/q, which puts Q3 at about $13.4B. Data centre should rise about 50% q/q, with AI GPU revenue “much higher” than server CPU revenue once MI450/Helios ramps. The 2027 server CPU outlook was raised to about 100% growth from above 70%, mostly from units and core counts rather than price, as agentic workloads and accelerator host chips push CPU demand up alongside GPUs. Management plans for PC industry units to fall double digits in 2027 because memory costs are lifting system prices, and said it can move supply from PCs to the data centre. That fits Nanya’s call for PC demand down 20-30%. Memory pricing is pushing consumer devices down the queue for wafers, substrates and packaging. The ramp is being paid for on AMD’s balance sheet. Inventory rose about $3B to $11.5B, Q3 free cash flow was only $554M, and AMD is investing alongside partners to secure land and power several years ahead. Every revenue outlook is already net of customer-warrant reductions, and the dilution question waits for the 2027 guide, coming weeks after OpenAI’s funding round was cut to $20B. Management says it can see customers’ 2027 land, power and sites, which fits the Texas research: projects that already have permits deliver in 2027. The open risk is AMD’s 2028 growth, which depends on sites still waiting for new Texas permits and on Georgia’s new Democratic utility commission. Q4’s 55% gross margin is the benchmark as lower-margin GPUs overtake CPUs, and OpEx growing at less than half the rate of revenue is where the operating leverage comes from.

- France’s budget deficit has grown by €23.9B since parliament started work on the bill. Minister Amiel said the deficit has “virtually worsened by €23.9B” since examination began, against the €43B of savings needed to reach 5% of GDP, and a week ago he put the social-security slippage at about €5B. The revenue vote was postponed a second time with 758 amendments outstanding, and the first-reading deadline is midnight on Nov 17, so Article 49.3 remains possible. The October services PMI was revised to 46.2 from a 48.4 flash, while Germany’s was revised up to 52.5 from 51.7 and the euro-area figure came in at 51.4. The OAT-Bund spread is near 165bps after Fitch’s negative outlook, and the AFT’s 10-year auction is on Thursday, the same day the BoE decides. The Times shadow MPC voted 9-0 for a hike, and euro-area flash CPI is due today.

- European earnings split by sector, and a cyber attack has now cut a guidance number. Novo Nordisk raised its outlook on GLP-1 sales, with adjusted EBIT of DKK31.7B against 28.4B expected and revenue of DKK79.2B against 73.4B, and named Luigi La Corte CFO. Ahold Delhaize cut its outlook because of its October cybersecurity incident, while announcing a €1B buyback. That is the first guidance cut at a large European company traceable to the attack wave CrowdStrike says is doubling monthly. Smith & Nephew cut revenue growth to about 3% on US hips and knees, and BMW’s EBIT of €1.59B was roughly in line with €1.62B expected. Pandora’s October like-for-like sales grew only 1% with less promotion, Continental swung to a profit and Siltronic beat on EBITDA.

- Cross-asset: Treasuries moved most: a 9bps rally in the 5-year and a weaker dollar priced the expected fiscal restraint ahead of the 08:30 ET refunding. The bigger risk to AI capex sits in state permit rules, with Texas’s 2028 greenfield pipeline, Georgia’s commission and local bans favouring connected generation over load-dependent utilities and GPU-backed borrowers. Oracle’s cancelled Tencent lease and Meta’s 38-year euro bonds show AI funding meeting both geopolitical and duration constraints. Brent at $103.60 reflects rising Gulf exports, while the Qeshm strikes and a post-midterm escalation remain unpriced. France’s €23.9B deficit slippage and 46.2 services PMI go into Thursday’s OAT auction and BoE decision. Today brings the refunding, euro-area CPI, ADP and ISM services, followed by payrolls on Friday, Congress on Nov 9 and the Dec 11 funding deadline.

- Asia closed higher with Shanghai outperforming +2.2%. EU indices +0.7-2.2%. US futures +0.6-1.1%. Gold +2.9%, DXY -0.5%; Commodity: Brent -1.0%, WTI -0.3%; Crypto: BTC +1.6%, ETH +2.2%.

Asia

- China Oct RatingDog Services PMI: 50.6 v 51.6e (44th month of expansion).

- Australia Oct Final Services PMI: 48.5 v 47.8 prelim (confirmed 1st month of contraction in 5 months).

- Australia Sept Household Spending M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.8% v 6.5% prior.

- New Zealand Q3 Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.5%e.

- New Zealand Oct ANZ Commodity Price M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% prior.

Global conflict/tensions

- President Trump stated that US had no immediate plans to strike Iran but forces are prepared to act if necessary. Current developments suggested diplomacy might achieve US objectives without further escalation.

Europe

- London Times Shadow MPC stressed that BoE "must raise interest rates" to tackle inflation with the vote being unanimous [9-0].

Americas

- US Mid-term elections saw a Blue Tsunami wave as Democrats were projected to win both the US Senate and House amid Republican rout; Trump suggested he would not challenge the results.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -5.3M v -2.0M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.71% at 10,713.65, DAX +0.94% at 26,143.52, CAC-40 +1.01% at 8,101.60, IBEX-35 +2.14% at 19,209.39, FTSE MIB +1.80% at 50,842.50, SMI +0.57% at 14,827.70, S&P 500 Futures +0.66%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities firm into the open, with the IBEX 35 up 2.1%, the FTSE MIB up 1.8%, the CAC 40 up 1.0%, the DAX up 0.9% and the FTSE 100 up 0.7%, as early midterm returns pointing to strong Democratic House gains cap the executive’s scope for unilateral tariffs and clean-energy subsidy rollbacks, at the cost of fresh uncertainty over US funding for NATO and Ukraine defence. Renewables lead the cross-sector rotation, with Ørsted up 7%, Vestas up 5% and Nordex up 4.5% on improved odds of supportive US clean-energy policy, while domestic banks play catch-up, with FinecoBank, BPER and UniCredit up 3% each and Intesa Sanpaolo up 2.5% after raising its FY profit outlook to well above €10B; healthcare and cyclicals add earnings-led strength, as Novo Nordisk gains 4.5% on a Q3 beat and FY guidance lifted to -2% to +2% from -6% to 0%, Continental jumps 5.5% on a raised margin target and €2.5B of shareholder returns, and Heidelberg Materials and Siltronic rise 7% each. Losers are narrow and company-specific, with Weir down 7.5% on a heavy Q4 revenue-conversion requirement and a 75 bps 2027 margin headwind, Smith & Nephew down 2.5% after cutting FY guidance as US orthopaedics demand weakened and J&J talks ended, and BMW down 1.5% after cutting its automotive margin outlook to between -0.5% and +0.5% against a 25% slump in China sales. Semiconductors stabilise as AMD’s data-centre growth and resilient guidance ease worries over AI capex sustainability after last week’s 30% Intel collapse and Apple’s memory-cost warning, leaving ASML and Infineon up 1% each, while the euro-zone flash HICP and ECB chief economist Lane’s appearance are the day’s tests for a December hike after the deposit rate was held at 2.50%.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: M6 [MMT.FR] +7.5% (Q3 revenue rose 9.4%, driven by stronger video-advertising income), Continental [CON.DE] +5.5% (Q3 adjusted EBIT beat forecasts, FY margin guidance was raised to 13.4–14.0% and €2.5bn of shareholder returns were outlined), Pandora [PNDORA.DK] +3.5% (Q3 like-for-like sales and EBIT beat consensus and FY guidance was narrowed toward the upper end), Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK] -2.0% (profit more than doubled from the cyberattack-hit comparison but remained below the two-year level, clothing lagged and FY guidance was only maintained), BMW [BMW.DE] -1.5% (cut its automotive margin outlook to -0.5% to +0.5% as accelerated restructuring costs compounded a 25% slump in quarterly China sales).

Healthcare: Novo Nordisk [NOVOB.DK] +4.5% (Q3 adjusted operating profit beat expectations and FY sales and profit guidance improved to -2% to +2% from -6% to 0%), Smith & Nephew [SN.UK] -2.5% (cut FY revenue, trading-profit, free-cash-flow and return-on-capital guidance as US orthopaedics demand weakened, while talks with J&J ended).

Technology: Siltronic [WAF.DE] +7.0% (Q3 sales and EBITDA beat consensus by 6% and 7%, respectively, prompting a revenue-guidance upgrade), ASML [ASML.NL] +1.0%, Infineon [IFX.DE] +1.0% (strong AMD results and guidance supported European semiconductors despite concerns over tighter US AI regulation).

Energy: Vopak [VPK.NL] +4.0% (raised FY proportional EBITDA and operating-free-cash-flow guidance after strong storage demand and project contributions), Ørsted [ORSTED.DK] +7.0%, Vestas [VWS.DK] +5.0%, Nordex [NDX1.DE] +4.5% (renewables rallied after the Democratic sweep of the US Congress improved expectations for supportive clean-energy policy).

Consumer staples: Ahold Delhaize [AD.NL] +2.5% (Q3 sales, operating income and EPS beat forecasts despite cyberattack disruption, alongside a new €1bn buyback), Barry Callebaut [BARN.CH] -1.5% (FY revenue missed forecasts and the next-year profit outlook was pressured by a higher cocoa-price assumption).

Industrials/defence: Weir [WEIR.UK] -7.5% (investors focused on the large Q4 revenue-conversion requirement and a 75bp 2027 ERP margin headwind despite 8% Q3 order growth).

Financials: AIB Group [AIBG.IE] +4.5% (raised FY net-interest-income and loan-growth guidance after new lending increased 17%), Aker [AKER.NO] +3.0% (Q3 net asset value reached a record NOK111.2bn and the board approved a second NOK29-a-share dividend), Intesa Sanpaolo [ISP.IT] +2.5% (nine-month net income rose 8.1%, the FY profit outlook was raised to well above €10bn and a €0.22 interim dividend was approved), Sampo [SAMPO.FI] +1.5% (Q3 underwriting profit rose 9% with an 82.6% combined ratio and the FY forecast was raised), FinecoBank [FBK.IT] +3.0%, BPER Banca [BPE.IT] +3.0%, UniCredit [UCG.IT] +3.0% (rotation into previously lagging domestic European banks following the US election result).

Materials: Heidelberg Materials [HEI.DE] +7.0% (Q3 revenue increased 10% and operating result rose 9%, while the group expanded its cost-savings programme).

Speakers

- Sweden Central Bank Policy Statement noted that the Key Rate would likely be raised further in coming year. Stronger economic activity combined with cost increases due to supply disruptions meant that inflation was expected to continue rising going forward. Pressures remained elevated due to supply disruptions linked to war in Middle East. Development of (SEK) Krona poses a risk for inflation.

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Thedeen post rate decision press conference reiterated its statement that would likely to raise rate over coming year if staff forecasts held.

- Eurozone ECB Wage Tracker maintained 2026 expected wage growth at +2.7% and maintained Q2 2027 wage growth at 2.8%.

- Netherlands Govt nominated Knot for ECB presidency (to replace Lagarde).

- China Foreign Ministry stated that it supported Iran and US to resolve differences through negotiations. Maintaining communication with relevant parties on any possible trilateral meeting between US-Russia and China in Shenzhen.

Currencies

- USD Index hit a 1-month low as US Mid-term elections saw the Democrats retake control of both House and the Senate. Dealers noted that the big Democratic majorities would not likely produce veto-proof measures thus likely political noise but not much action with economic consequences. One question that would emerge was whether the budget negotiations in December 2026 and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2027 raised the threats of government shutdowns and debt default.

- EUR/USD at 1.1255 by mid-session as the EU inflation data remained well above ECB target level. Recent ECB speak has stressed that October rate pause did not mean tightening was over with several members suggesting the current rate was not sufficient.

- GBP/USD at 1.3485 by mid-session. Focus on Thurs BOE rate decision. London Times Shadow MPC stressed that BOE "must raise interest rates" to tackle inflation with the vote being unanimous [9-0].

- USD/JPY at 158.30. Dealers focus on upcoming 10-year JGB bond auction on Thursday.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.33%, France 10-year Oat at 4.91% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.24%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.93%; 10-year JGB: 2.80%.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6%e.

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.1%e.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Services PMI: 55.7 v 57.3 prior (8th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 57.0 v 57.7 prior.

- (HU) Hungary Sept Industrial Production M/M: +0.9% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 8.2% v 6.0%e.

- (ES) Spain Oct Unemployment Change: No est v 23.6K prior; Employment Net Change M/M: No est v 108.8K prior.

- (AT) Austria Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.7% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e (2nd straight month above target).

- (BR) Brazil Oct FIPE CPI (Sao Paulo): 0.4% v 0.5%e.

- (ES) Spain Oct Services PMI: 57.2 v 57.6e (5th months of expansion); Composite PMI: 56.2 v 56.2e.

- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) raised the Repo Rate by 25bps to 2.00% (as expected).

- (IT) Italy Oct Services PMI: 52.0 v 51.5e (5th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 50.8 v 50.8e.

- (FR) France Oct Final Services PMI: 46.2v 48.4 prelim (confirms move back into contraction); Composite PMI: 48.4 v 48.4 prelim.

- (DE) Germany Oct Final Services PMI: 52.5v 51.7 prelim (confirms 2nd month of expansion); Composite PMI: 53.4v 52.8 prelim.

- (EU) Eurozone Oct Final Services PMI: 51.4 v 51.7 prelim (confirms 4th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 51.7 v 51.9 prelim.

- (UK) Oct Final Services PMI: 52.8v 53.1 prelim (confirms the 4th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.9v 53.1 prelim.

- (UK) Oct Official Reserves Changes: -$2.2B v -$6.0B prior.

- (HU) Hungary Oct YTD Budget Balance (HUF): -5.463T v -5.262T prior.

- (EU) Eurozone Oct Preliminary CPI Estimate Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5%e.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total IN150B vs. INR230B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.95B in 2028 and 2035 DGB bonds.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK5.0B vs. SEK5.0B indicated in 2028 and 2037 SGB bonds.

Looking ahead

- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 3.75%.

- (MX) Mexico CitiBanamex Survey of Economists.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €2.0B in 2041 and 2048 Bunds.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.0% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q3 Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.3% prior.

- 06:01 (NZ) New Zealand Oct Cotality Home Value M/M: No est v -0.3% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) European Union to sell combined €6.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCh) Oct Minutes.

- 06:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): No est v 105.45 prior.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 30th: No est v +3.4% prior.

- 07:00 (UR) Ukraine Q3 GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.7%e v +0.4% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.02 prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 129.3K prior.

- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Oct Minutes.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) Oct Monthly ADP Employment Change: +66Ke v +90K prior.

- 08:20 (IE) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist).

- 08:30 (US) Sept Trade Balance: -$107.9Be v -$105.6B prior; Exports M/M: 1.8%e v 1.4% prior; Imports M/M: 1.4%e v 4.3% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Int'l Merchandise Trade (CAD): 4.4Be v 4.2B prior.

- 08:30 (US) Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Oct Services PMI: No est v 48.3 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 48.7 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Oct Final S&P Services PMI: 57.9e v 57.9 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 57.6 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Oct ISM Services Index: 54.8e v 54.9 prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Exports: $5.4Be v $4.5B prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5 Year Bonds.

- 12:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Formal Job Creation: +183.5Ke v +165.8K prior.

- 16:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Selic Target Rate unchanged at 13.75%.

- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Current Account Balance: No est v $46.1B prior; Goods of Balance (BOP): No est v $46.8B prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan BOJ Sept Minutes (2 decisions ago).

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Oct Final Services PMI: No est v 52.0 prelim, Composite PMI: No est v 52.3 prelim.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Sept Trade Balance (A$): 0.3Be v 0.5B prior; Exports M/M: No est v 3.7% prior; Imports M/M: No est v 5.8% prior.

- 20:00 (PH) Philippines Oct CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 7.6%e v 7.2% prior; Core CPI Y/Y: 5.1%e v 4.7% prior.

- 22:30 (TH) Thailand Oct CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 2.8% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.5% prior.

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 10-year JGB Bonds.

- 23:00 (ID) Indonesia Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.3%e v 3.7% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 5.3% prior.