Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The holiday week starts tomorrow in the US so the volumes would be thinner and as a result, the currencies might remain stable, and the targets can get delayed. The Dollar Index, above 107 can rise towards 108.50-109 in the near term. Euro, EURINR and Aussie can trade within 1.0450/0550-1.0350/0300, 89.50/90.00-88.00 and 0.6350/06300-0.6200 respectively until a decisive break is seen on either side. The pound needs to hold above the support of 1.25 to head toward the near-term target of 1.2650. Else any break below 1.2500-1.2450, if seen, can be bearish for the pair. USDJPY is rising as expected and can test 158 soon. EURJPY, on a break past 164 can turn bullish. USDINR reversed from the low of 84.99 itself and now while it sustains above 85.10, can see a further rise to 85.10/20 in the near term.
The US Treasury yields are getting a good follow-through rise after breaking above the key resistance. That keeps the outlook bullish. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The German yields remain stable. Outlook remains bullish. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI is turning down as expected from near its resistance. The downtrend has resumed, and yield can fall going forward.
The Dow Jones initially attempted a corrective rise to 42,800 but failed to sustain intraday gains. However, a test of 43300-43500 is possible before a dip is seen towards 42000-41800. DAX dropped below 20,000, opening the possibility of a fall to 19,500-19,400. Nifty looks mixed for now and could trade within 23500-24100 for now. Nikkei remains below 39,000, maintaining a bearish outlook towards 38,000. Shanghai continues to trade below 3,400, with a bias for further declines towards 3,300.
Crude prices can remain in a narrow range of 73-75 (Brent) and 69-72 (WTI) for the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper can rally higher towards 2650-2670, 31.0-31.5 and 4.15-4.20 respectively. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 4.0-4.2.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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