Morning briefing: Euro can test 1.1700

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The forex market appears to be driven by the plunge in USDJPY, which has dragged the Dollar Index lower while the other currencies strengthen against the US Dollar. Euro can test 1.17, EURINR is headed towards 112.50, and USDCNY can test 6.70, while Aussie and Pound look bullish for the near term. USDINR rose to close above 94.80 yesterday. Sustained rise could push it towards 95.00–95.25 before pausing for a reversal.

The US Treasury Yields remain higher and stable. The outlook remains bullish to see more rise. Support can limit the downside from here. The German Yields have dipped slightly. They need to rise back and get a strong follow-through buying to go higher. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI has dipped slightly. Support is there to limit the downside and keep alive the chances of rising back again.

Dow remains weak below 53000 and can dip towards 52500 before consolidating within 52500-54000. DAX remains uncertain for now. Nifty needs to hold 23600 for a recovery towards 23800. A break below 23600 could extend the decline towards 23500. Nikkei remains positive above 64000 and can rise towards 67000-68000. Shanghai remains range-bound between 3850-4000 while below 4000.

Brent and WTI have reached the mentioned levels as expected, with a break above $100 and $95 respectively opening the way towards $110 and $100. Gold remains positive above $4300 and can rise towards $4600. Silver needs to sustain above $70 for a move towards $75-$80. Copper remains weak below $6.80 and can dip towards $6.70-$6.60. Natural Gas remains range-bound between $2.80-$3.00 while below $3.00.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

AUD/USD extends the range play above 0.7200 as traders await US inflation data

AUD/USD is seen extending its consolidative price move above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed cues. Rising RBA rate-hike bets keep the Aussie close to its highest level since May 14. However, hawkish Fed expectations and escalating US-Iran tensions offer some support to the US Dollar, capping the currency pair as traders await US inflation figures.

USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold sticks to gains, eyes $4,450 as USD remains depressed ahead of US inflation data

Gold turns higher following an intraday dip to sub-$4,400 levels, and moves further away from a one-week low touched the previous day. The commodity, however, remains below the $4,450 pivotal point as bulls seem hesitant ahead of US inflation figures. The US Producer Price Index report will be published later today, while the US Consumer Price Index is due on Friday.

XRP rally cools, XLM heads toward a make-or-break support

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) trade under pressure on Thursday after losing over 2% and 3% so far this week. XRP and XLM are both nearing their crucial support zones, which could determine the next directional move. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives and on-chain data suggest upside potential remains limited for both altcoins. CryptoQuant’s summary data shows cautious signs for both altcoins.

Jobs opened the door for the Fed — inflation decides whether it walks through

The latest US jobs report did not end the debate over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. It may have done something more subtle: it gave policymakers permission to keep their options open. After months of softer labour market signals, August delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.