Markets react to geopolitical tensions and Nvidia anticipation amid volatility

• Vlad raises the temperature around the world.

• Gold, Oil and Bitcoin surge on the back of those rising tensions.

• It’s all about NVDA today.

• Try the Old-Fashioned Honey Infused Corn Bread (for you Thanksgiving table).

**I am in San Francisco at the Schwab Impact Conference – back on Friday.  I will be joining Schwab TV at 11 am – Trading 360** CORZ, RTX and SMCI.

It was a volatile session – stocks initially under pressure as geo-political issues stole the headlines – Vlad lowering the bar to use nukes against Ukraine after Ukraine used US made missiles to attack Russia – Vlad reiterating that the missiles ok’d by JoJo over the weekend raise the stakes and stocks sold off…..you could feel the nervousness and btw – the US closed its embassy in Kyiv today after receiving specific information about more potential air strikes….the VIX (fear index) spiked higher up 14% in the early morning before the open and then again after the opening….futures were lower in the pre-mkt and then traded lower again after the market opened…..All the indexes lower as investors, traders and algo’s figured it out….and stocks struggled for direction…..(This morning the VIX is down 1.6% and that is giving support to futures early trading.)

In any event – at the end of the day – the Dow lost 120 pts, the S&P added 24, the Nasdaq up 196 (you can thank today’s NVDA results), the Russell up 18, while the Transports lost 115 and the Equal Weight S&P gave up 19 pts.

NVDA gained 4.9% in the face of all that nervousness as investors continue to reinforce its pivotal role in the AI boom.  Let’s not forget – NVDA’s results are the focus today…. Who are you kidding?  The stock is quoted up another 0.6% this morning. 

Bonds gained – the TLT + 0.5% and the TLH + 0.2% and that sent yields down just a bit, but any losses yesterday are being taken back this morning…. The 2 yr is yielding 4.3% up 1 bps while the 10 yr is yielding 4.425% up 2.5 bps.  Mortgage rates have creeped back up – 30 yr conventional rates are back kissing 7% while 15 yr rates are at 6.42%.  Yesterday’s eco data saw Housing starts fall by 3.1% m/m vs. the expectation of a decline of 1.5%.  Building permits also lost 0.6%. This morning – we saw mortgage apps rise by 1.7% - fairly anemic – but it is also that time of year when the mortgage market and home sales market is at its slowest….

Oil rallied on the back of the rising geo-political tensions….and this morning it is kissing trendline resistance at $70.13…..If we fail to hold it then we remain in the $66/$70- range….a push up and thru should see oil test trendline resistance at $72.

Gold bounced off intermediate trendline support at $2580 – moving up on the back of those rising Russian/Ukraine tensions…. think the ‘safe haven play’ again.  The move in gold will now be driven by all of those headlines until those headlines change.  Any uptick in tensions will cause a range of investors to jump in and don’t forget – Goldman’s latest call – they expect Gold to trade up to $3000 next year – which represents a 15% move up.

Bitcoin is trading up $2000 at $94,200….

Other than mortgage apps – there is no other eco data today…. but tomorrow we will get the Philly Business outlook and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity reports, Initial and Cont. jobless claims, and Existing Home Sales (expected to be up 2.9% - something I disagree with). Think rising rates and time of year……

US futures are all higher…. Dow futures + 135, S&P’s up 12, the Nasdaq up 55 and the Russell up 3 pts.  Again – it’s all about NVDA today….and those results don’t come out until 4.05 pm…. Remember – NVDA has a $3.6 trillion mkt cap, which makes it more important than some of the eco data and the Trump cabinet picks….

Investors will be sitting on the edge of their seats as CEO Huang takes the stage…. IF he somehow disappoints – it will be a catalyst for a selloff – as it has become one of those ‘too big to fail’ companies. What are companies spending on AI vs. what the market ‘wants’ them to spend – and that could be the issue…. Can Jensen satisfy expectations?  In any event – mkts do not like uncertainty, they are fickle, but ultimate trade on earnings and forward guidance….

European markets are all higher.

The S&P closed at 5916 up 24 pts…. After testing a low of 5855 – leaving us short of filling that gap created on November 6th.  I am still in the camp that we need to fill it but, if we get a surge back towards 6000 after NVDA’s earnings – I think it will temporary…..but we are also getting close to that ‘Christmas rally’ time frame…It’s going to be an interesting time. 

As an investor – you want to see the market consolidate and trade a bit lower while as a day trader – you want more volatility…. My sense is that we will trade up today but then back off and fill the gap and test trendline support before we make a renewed move higher.  I suspect that we will be in the 6000 range by year end. 

Old fashioned honey infused corn bread

Corn bread is one of those things that everyone remembers… I mean who doesn’t like corn bread? Hot out of the oven, schmear some butter and a cold glass of milk – reminds me of being a kid – no?

For this you need: 1 1/4 cups buttermilk (or whole milk), 1 stick of butter - melted, 1 1/2 cups cornmeal – med grind is better – it will give you that hearty grainy taste - 1/2 cup flour, 1 1/2 tsp. baking powder, 1 tsp salt, 1 tbsp. sugar, or a bit more if you like it sweeter, 1 egg and some honey.  (you can also just go out and buy your favorite Cornbread mix and just add the honey!)

Preheat the oven to 375 degrees.

Melt the butter in the microwave.

Combine the dry ingredients in a bowl. Mix the egg into the buttermilk or milk. Mix well and then add to the dry ingredients. Add the butter. (If it seems too dry, add a bit more of the milk) Pour the batter into greased muffins tins or a greased baking pan. Tap on the counter to remove any air bubbles and now place them in the oven. 

Bake for about 30 minutes and then stick the knife in – if ready it will come out clean. If not – bake a bit longer. You want the top to be lightly browned while the sides have pulled away from the pan.

When you pull it out of the oven – use a fork and poke holes in it… all over – don’t destroy it, just poke holes. Now squeeze the honey out and spread it over the top of the hot cornbread – allowing the honey to absorb through the holes. Serve this on your Thanksgiving Day table.