- EUR/USD started the new week with a bullish gap.
- Exit polls showed Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's parliamentary elections.
- Germany's Destatis will release preliminary Consumer Price Index data for June.
After closing the previous week marginally higher, EUR/USD opened with a bullish gap and climbed toward 1.0800 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The pair corrects lower in the European morning but manages to stay in positive territory above 1.0750.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.39% | -0.16% | 0.16% | 0.04% | -0.09% | -0.07% | 0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | -0.00% | 0.28% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.00% | 0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.24% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.29% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.24% | -0.12% | -0.19% | -0.24% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.12% | -0.09% | -0.12% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | -0.19% | -0.19% | 0.19% | 0.09% | -0.18% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | -0.01% | -0.01% | 0.24% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.19% | -0.28% | -0.29% | -0.05% | -0.15% | -0.18% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
According to exit polls, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won around 34% of the vote in the first round of France's parliamentary election. The left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) and President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance are projected to receive 29% and 20.5%-23% of the vote, respectively, per Reuters.
The Euro gathered strength with the immediate reaction as Le Pen's NR's vote came in below most projections. Reflecting the improving risk mood, the Euro Stoxx 50 opened decisively higher and was last seen gaining 1.6% on the day.
In the second half of the day, preliminary June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany will be watched closely. Investors expect the CPI to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis following the 0.1% increase recorded in May. A stronger-than-forecast increase in this data could provide an additional boost to the Euro.
Later in the session, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be featured in the US economic docket. The headline PMI is seen improving slightly to 49 in June from 48.7 in May. A reading above 50 could help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and cap EUR/USD's upside.
During the American trading hours, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver welcome remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. Lagarde is unlikely to deliver any comments on the policy outlook because she will speak alongside Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a policy panel on Tuesday.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the latest uptrend aligns as immediate resistance at 1.0760. In case EUR/USD confirms that level as support, 1.0800 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) could be seen as next resistance before 1.0840 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
On the downside, supports could be seen at 1.0740 (100-period SMA), 1.0700 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0670 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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