Dollar/Yen trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating lower

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

Price

USD/JPY last price was ¥ 133.4808.

Trend analysis

In the short term Dollar/Yen has been accelerating lower. In the long term Dollar/Yen has been accelerating lower.

Value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 7 days and decreased 13 days.

For every up day, there were 1.86 down days.

The average return on days where the price increased is 0.4202%.

The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.3104%.

Performance

Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -1.12% percent.

Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.056% percent.

Trade idea

With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Sell $ 434,192 USD , or 4.34 lots of Dollar/Yen, take profit at ¥ 132.9561 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,706 USD gain, stop out at ¥ 133.7882 with 49.98% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon

Intraday predictions

USD/JPY trend analysis

USDJPY last price was ¥ 133.4808 . The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating.

USD/JPY value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 7 days and decreased 13 days. For every up day, there were 1.86 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.4202% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.3104% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -1.12% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.056% percent.

USD/JPY worst/best case scenario snalysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDJPY, is $ 132.585314 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 134.376258 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 133.7882 could trade and that $ 132.9561 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDJPY, is $ 132.585314 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 134.376258 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that $ 133.7882 could trade and that $ 132.9561 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability vs payout chart

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key takeaways

• Price today ¥ 133.4808.

• Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 7 days and decreased 13 Days.

• For every up day, there were 1.86 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.4202%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.3104%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -1.12% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.056% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 0.075¥ per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -1.4797 ¥.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -1.1086 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 1.4453¥.