-
Stocks did nothing as we wait.
-
Bonds did nothing as wait.
-
Oil fell by 2% and is down another 1% today.
-
Gold holding steady in mid-century.
-
NVDA after the bell but so is CRWD, CRM & HP.
-
Try the Stuffed Chicken Cutlets.
Carly Simon – 1971 “Anticipation – is making me wait……”
And that possible 10% move (up or down) in NVDA that the options market is pricing in – implies a $316 billion change in market cap…. think about that for one minute…. $316 billion change in market cap. 95% of listed companies in the S&P don’t even have a market cap of $316 billion – marinate on that for a minute….
All this as stocks hovered near their highs, just waiting for the news….news that is now only 12 hours away….The Dow up 10 pts, the S&P up 9, the Nasdaq up 30, the Russell lost 15, the Transports lost 85 and the Equal Weighted S&P added 1…
it was a very quiet day….we are in the final week of the summer, volumes are low, and moves are exaggerated……and they will be even more exaggerated tomorrow – why – because “the” earnings are not due out until AFTER The close of trading today…..so we’ll get the reaction at like 4:11 pm….which will guide the action for the broader market tomorrow, not today…. So, we wait….
What I think is a bit ridiculous is that many are wondering if ‘the AI euphoria still has room to run’! Are they kidding? Is someone really asking THAT question? Again, listen to me, we are still very much in the infancy stage of where we are going…no one really knows where the road will take us, they just know we are on it and can’t get off now….
The other question is ‘Can they at least match Wall Street’s lofty estimates’ – to which I would say – First those are Wall Streets estimates, not the companies estimate. Second, JH (Jensen Huang) knows what the estimate are, he’s not a dummy, if he thinks that the estimates are way off, that the street’s analysts have completely screwed it up, he would have told them by now….Because that is part of the process….you see – analysts have relationships with the company and the C suite…they talk (they are supposed to), they gather info, they use channel checks, they compare what other companies are saying about AI and how they are powering it (who they are using to support their efforts)….and then they ‘come up’ with a number…. Companies that think the number is too ‘lofty’ will send that message via those ‘channels’ ….…and then analysts will ‘adjust’ their estimates – like they always do…(in fact we are starting to see 3rd qtr. earnings getting ‘adjusted’ – I’d say slashed, but that implies something negative)…
And so, I am willing to bet that not only will JH meet the estimates, but he will beat them and then offer robust guidance as well. – which does NOT mean that investors, traders and algos’ WON’T hit the sell button…. I suspect many will – just to lock in the profits – they have made big bets and today after the bell, is the ‘payday’. And again – UNLESS the thesis changes, UNLESS JH says something that is completely negative (not happening) – I am not wavering…. Now at some point – NVDA will not grow at the rate it is growing, I’m just saying – that point is not NOW…
Look – the top 3 holders are: Vanguard owns 2.1 billion shares, Blackrock owns 1.9 billion shares, Fidelity owns 1 billion shares…..the stock is up 187% this year ALONE (795% in 2 yrs.) – it would make sense that these 3 holders (never mind all the others) might ‘trade’ around the core position (not sell the core position)….to raise some quick cash….to redeploy somewhere else….or just hold the cash to see how the chips fall. And then you have all those algo traders that have no loyalty to the name in the long run, but love to trade it in the short run….What I am saying is – UNLESS the long term thesis changes – as a long term investor – do not over react to this report…..
And think about this – CRWD, CRM an HP are also reporting today after the bell, but you didn’t know that…because NVDA is sucking all the air out of the room…. CRWD will be interesting as they are still reeling from that failure last month…that stock has lost 35% - what can they say to help themselves at the moment…. (not much in my opinion) – but let’s see.
Bonds did nothing really; the 2 yr. is yielding 3.86% and the 10 yr. is yielding 3.81%.
Oil lost 2.2% to end the day at $75.76 and is down another 1.2% today as the whipsawing continues….Yesterday we learned that the Hootie’s hit a Greek tanker in the Red Sea causing it to burn and leak oil , Russian production rebounded to their highest level in nearly 2 months and the API reported that US crude inventories fell by 3.4 mill barrels last week. All of that a mixed bag – some of it bullish, and some of it bearish…and with the geo-political situation being what it is…. oil remains volatile…Once again we have broken the long term trendline at $75.87 – leaving the $72 range as support….
Gold remains in the mid-century – trading at $2555. This morning Gold is down $9 at $2546. It remains in the $2525/$2575 trading range on the hopes that we get a 25 bp cut in September…If we do, I would not be surprised to see gold traders take profits in the recent move to new highs…while remaining in the broader $2500/$2600 trading range.
Eco data today includes only mortgage apps…. last week they were down 10%....
US futures are UP (really flat) …. Dow futures are +20, S&P +4, while the Nasdaq +11 pts and the Russell is +2 all as we wait for NVDA earnings after the bell….and more inflation data at the end of the week.
Don’t forget even if the numbers blow the roof off – it will be the guidance that everyone focuses on….and if for some reason the guidance isn’t what the algo’s expect – then watch as the algo’s melt down……Again any disappointment will create large waves of selling that will reverberate across the whole tech space…. While any perception that JH is just ‘killing it’ will send the algo’s into a frenzy…
European markets are all higher by about 0.5%.
The S&P closed at 5625 – up 9 pts. I do not expect much action today as we wait…. But watch what happens at 4:10 est….
In the end - it is important to always take a ‘balanced’ approach to long term investing…try not to make ‘emotional’ or ‘rash’ decisions, yet do not become so complacent that you lose sight of what is going on around you.
Stuffed chicken cutlets
For this you will need: 8 Thin sliced Chicken Cutlets, 2 Cups Sautéed Spinach, Grated Pecorino Romano or Parmegiana Cheese, Thinly Sliced Pancetta, S & P, Olive Oil, Garlic, Peeled & sliced, Chicken Broth, Dry White Wine, Butter & Flour.
Sauté your fresh spinach in a bit of garlic and olive oil – seasoned lightly with s&p.
Lay the cutlets out flat on wax paper and lightly season with salt and pepper. Next divide the spinach amongst the eight cutlets, careful not to overstuff - leaving a little space along the sides. Now sprinkle a tblspn of the cheese on top of the spinach on each of the cutlets.
Starting at one end, tightly roll the cutlets – now wrap the pancetta around the chicken pinch it tight a toothpick. If it is a big cutlet, you may need two pieces of Pancetta. (You can also choose to use cooking string to tie it up – but the toothpicks are easier.)
Now - In a large, heavy bottom skillet, add some olive oil over med high heat and add the sliced garlic. Sauté for about 3 mins – now add the chicken and brown on all sides, about 5 – 8 minutes.
Next - Add equal parts of chicken broth and wine and bring to a boil. (Usually, a cup of each will do for 8 cutlets).
Reduce the heat to a simmer, partly cover the skillet and cook for 15 minutes.
Now remove the chicken and bring the remaining wine mixture to a boil.
Season with s&p, - - now add dollop of butter and maybe a tsp of flour and allow to thicken just a bit. (if it is not thickening – you can always add a bit more butter and flour) When thickened – add the chicken back to the sauce and coat well. To serve - Place the chicken on a platter and pour the sauce on top. Make sure to have a mixed green salad to accompany. If you want – you can add a side of garlic and herb flavored rice. No need for a veggie – it’s in the cutlet.
General Disclosures
Information and commentary provided by ButcherJoseph Asset Management, LLC (“BJAM”), are opinions and should not be construed as facts. The market commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a solicitation to invest or increase investments in BJAM products or the products of BJAM affiliates. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. There can be no guarantee that any of the described objectives can be achieved. BJAM does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Information provided from third parties was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable. The price of any investment may rise or fall due to changes in the broad markets or changes in a company’s financial condition and may do so unpredictably. BJAM does not make any representation that any strategy will or is likely to achieve returns similar to those shown in any performance results that may be illustrated in this presentation. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective.
Definitions and Indices
The S&P 500 Index is a stock market index based on the market capitalization of 500 leading companies publicly traded in the U.S. stock market, as determined by Standard & Poor’s.
UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, INDEX RETURNS REFLECT THE REINVESTMENT OF INCOME DIVIDENDS AND CAPITAL GAINS, IF ANY, BUT DO NOT REFLECT FEES, BROKERAGE COMMISSIONS OR OTHER EXPENSES OF INVESTING. INVESTORS CAN NOT MAKE DIRECT INVESTMENTS INTO ANY INDEX.
BJAM is an investment advisor registered in North Carolina and Arizona. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. BJAM’s advisory fee and risks are fully detailed in Part 2 of its Form ADV, available upon request.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
![EUR/USD slides toward 1.1100 as USD recovery continues](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/money-9377516_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD slides toward 1.1100 as USD recovery continues
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and declines toward 1.1100 on Wednesday. In the absence of fundamental drivers, the cautious market mood allows the US Dollar to gather recovery momentum and forces the pair to stay on the back foot.
![GBP/USD closes in on 1.3200 on renewed USD strength](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/cash-334064_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD closes in on 1.3200 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD is keeping the red and pushing lower toward 1.3200 on Wednesday, undermined by a broad US Dollar rebound. Markets turn anxious ahead of speeches from the BoE and the Fed policymakers later in the day.
![Gold extends correction, tests $2,500](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/gold-nuggets-7636265_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold extends correction, tests $2,500
After closing the first two days of the week in positive territory, Gold struggles to hold its ground and tests $2,500. Renewed US Dollar strength and US Treasury bond yields' resilience makes it difficult for XAU/USD to shake off the bearish pressure.
![FLOKI price is poised for a rally after breaking above the descending trendline](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/FlokiInu/FlokiInu_logo_XtraSmall.jpg)
FLOKI price is poised for a rally after breaking above the descending trendline
FLOKI price broke above the descending trendline and rallied 10%. At the time of writing on Wednesday, it continued its ongoing rally and trades 4.4% at $0.00015. Additionally, the suggestion of on-chain data supports the bullish trend, as evidenced by active, dormant wallets.
![Three fundamentals for the week: Focus on the fragility of the US economy](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/EconomicIndicator/Employment/NFP/american-dollar-bills-on-a-stars-and-stripes-flag-28691402_XtraSmall.jpg)
Three fundamentals for the week: Focus on the fragility of the US economy Premium
US Consumer confidence data will provide a gauge of how consumers are feeling. Jobless claims are in focus after Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech. Investors will look to the core PCE index to confirm that inflation is falling.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.