EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after German inflation data
EUR/USD trades modestly higher on the day above 1.0700. The data from Germany showed that the annual HICP inflation edged higher to 2.4% in April. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.3% and helped the Euro hold its ground.
USD/JPY recovers above 156.00 following suspected intervention
USD/JPY recovers ground and trades above 156.00 after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. Later this week, Federal Reserve's policy decisions and US employment data could trigger the next big action.
Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week
Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.
Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week Premium
Two main macroeconomic events this week could attempt to sway the crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC), which showed strength last week, has slipped into a short-term consolidation.
Five Fundamentals for the week: Fed fears, Nonfarm Payrolls, Middle East promise an explosive week Premium
Higher inflation is set to push Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues to a hawkish decision. Nonfarm Payrolls are set to rock markets, but the ISM Services PMI released immediately afterward could steal the show.
DEEPER DIVE
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture.
Building the future
There is a construction boom underway that is quietly transforming the production capabilities and other aspects of the US economy. The fastest-growing category within nonresidential construction in recent years has been manufacturing.
Addressing the public debt challenge in the EU
Recently an agreement has been reached between representatives of the European Council, the European Parliament, and the European Commission on a new economic governance framework.
FXS Signals
Technical Confluences Detector
Gold tests critical daily support line, will it defend? Premium
Gold price is seeing a negative start to a new week on Monday, having booked a weekly loss. Gold price bears the brunt of resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand and a risk-on market mood amid Japanese holiday-thinned market conditions.
Focus on the Fed and US Nonfarm Payrolls this week
The risk rally in Asia extends early Monday, following a strong close on Wall Street last Friday and a robust Alphabet earnings report, fuelling a fresh decline in the safe-haven Gold price even though the US Treasury bond yields nurse recent losses.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Ethereum fees drops to lowest level since October, ETH sustains above $3,200
Ethereum’s high transaction fees has been a sticky issue for the blockchain in the past. This led to Layer 2 chains and scaling solutions developing alternatives for users looking to transact at a lower cost.
Solana, Base and AI meme coins rally, are speculative tokens making a comeback?
Meme coins are typically considered more speculative than the rest of cryptocurrency categories. Despite the label, hedge funds and institutional investors have warmed up to meme coins this cycle.
RWA narrative could make a comeback after nearly 50% correction in CFG, ONDO, MKR
Bitcoin halving and developments in the AI sector are the key narratives this cycle. The Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization narrative gathered steam with BlackRock’s tokenized asset fund launch on Ethereum in March 2024.
These cryptocurrencies could face selling pressure according to an analyst: STRK, ENA, OMNI, JUP, ONDO
Thor Hartvigsen, investor at Heartcore Capital and a crypto analyst has identified a list of cryptocurrencies that are expected to see a massive increase in their supply. Typically, an increase in selling pressure negatively impacts an asset’s price.
THE STOCK OF THE DAY
GOOGL stock adds 10% on healthy margins, new dividend, $70 billion buyback scheme Premium
Alphabet, the parent of Google and YouTube, is clinging to a 10% gain midway through Friday after posting spectacular first-quarter results. For the quarter ending March 31, Alphabet posted revenue of $80.5 billion compared with a consensus of $78.7 billion. This amounted to a 15% growth rate from a year prior.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
WEEKLY FORECAST
EUR/USD: Federal Reserve and Nonfarm Payrolls spell action next week Premium
The EUR/USD pair temporarily reconquered the 1.0700 threshold this week, settling at around that round level. The US Dollar lost its appeal following discouraging US macroeconomic data indicating tepid growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling recovers after two straight weeks of losses Premium
Pound Sterling witnessed a negative start to the week despite the return of risk appetite on ebbing fears over a wider regional conflict in the Middle East.
US Dollar: Decline expected to moderate ahead of Fed and NFP Premium
A modest weekly retracement saw the Greenback reverse two consecutive advances, motivating the USD Index (DXY) to retreat further from yearly peaks at around 106.50 recorded earlier in the month.
Gold: Strength of $2,300 support is an encouraging sign for bulls Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) price started the week under heavy bearish pressure and registered its largest one-day loss of the year on Monday. The pair managed to stage a rebound in the second half of the week but closed in negative territory.
Bitcoin: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the euro. Chinese PMIs and New Zealand employment to be watched too.