USD/JPY Exchange rate
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AUD/USD holds ground as RBA leaves the door open for a hike
Tuesday's session witnessed the Australian Dollar clearing losses against the US Dollar following the release of the hawkish RBA minutes and the US JOLTs figures from May. For the USD, the confidence of Jerome Powell on inflation coming back down sooner on the prospects of a cooling labor market weakened the Greenback.
USD/JPY extends gains near 161.50 ahead of US data, FOMC Minutes
The USD/JPY pair trades on a stronger note near 161.40 after reaching a new high for this move near 161.75 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Market players remain focused on the possible foreign exchange intervention from the Bank of Japan, which might cap the pair’s upside.
Gold falls amid falling US yields, soft US Dollar
Gold price slid during the North American session as market participants digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal. Powell turned slightly dovish, yet US Treasury yields remained firm. The XAU/USD trades around $2,324.
Ethereum ETFs set for $5 billion inflows despite ETH Foundation's continuous sales
Ethereum is down more than 1.4% on Tuesday following another ETH sale from the Ethereum Foundation. Meanwhile, crypto exchange Gemini's recent report reveals that ETH ETF could see about $5 billion in net inflows within six months of launch.
Benefit of the doubt: US consumer confidence and elections
Despite widespread expectation for the US economy to be in recession in 2024, that fate has been avoided thanks to a resilient consumer. Yet it is difficult to square this undaunted spending with consumer confidence and sentiment readings that are lackluster at best.
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USD/JPY
USD/JPY is the abbreviation for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen cross. Trading this currency pair is known as the "gopher". The USD/JPY tends to have a positive correlation with the USD/CHF and USD/CAD, they all use the U.S. dollar as the base currency. The Yen is sensitive to factors related to Asian stock exchanges and due to the interest rate differential with other major currencies, it is also sensitive to any change affecting the so-called "Carry Trade".
HISTORICAL HIGHS AND LOWS
- Fixed Rate: (from 1944 to 1971) After World War II, the Yen lost its value. To stabilize, the exchange rate of it was fixed at ¥360 per $1 as part of the Bretton Woods system that set an obligation for each country to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rate by tying its currency to gold.
- Free Float Rate: When the Bretton Woods system ended in 1971, the USA terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold. The JPY became undervalued and was allowed to float. Since then, the pair reached its highest price in January 1973 at 301.15¥/USD and its minimum in October 2011 at 72¥/USD.
USD/JPY FORECAST 2024
The Yen could receive support from the BoJ if it indicates a shift toward ending its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, potentially through a rate hike that would mark the end of seven years of negative rates. Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Hino offered some comments about it in December. Rumors and speculations in that direction would trigger momentum for the Yen. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL CURRENCIES FOR USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair can also be impacted by other currencies, in particular the Euro (for being a prominent commercial partner) and the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (for being the other main Asian currency).This group also includes EUR/USD,GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY
MOST INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR USD/JPY
The organizations that most impact the USD/JPY are the Federal Reserve of the United States and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
- About the Fed: The Federal Reserve System is the central banking system of the United States of America. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics led to the desire for central control of the monetary system in order to alleviate financial crises.
- About the BoJ: The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan. The bank is often called Nichigin for short. The Bank's objectives are to issue banknotes and to carry out currency and monetary control and to ensure smooth settlement of funds among banks and other financial institutions, thereby contributing to the maintenance of the stability of the financial system.
The interest rate differential between the Fed and the BoJ will affect the value of these currencies when compared to each other. For example, when the Fed intervenes in open market activities to make the USD stronger, the value of the USD/JPY cross could increase, due to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar when compared to the Japanese yen.
In Japan, deflation has been a persistent threat for many years, and the BOJ has pursued a policy of very low rates in the hopes of stimulating demand and economic growth; at various points in the 2000s, real rates in Japan were actually slightly negative.
The US Government is as well an institution of great importance for this pair: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it. The same happens of course for the Japanese Government, in particular, all the speeches of the Primer Minister Fumio Kishida, who replaced Yoshihide Suga in October 2021.