XAU/XAG ratio sits at the highs – TDS

The set-up for algo flows in Silver are not very promising, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

A breakout appears imminent

"Over the coming sessions, subsequent CTA selling activity can hit the tapes, but we expect that new ATHs in Gold could finally catalyze a breakout in Silver markets, where we see unique implications from the dislocations in metals markets associated with tariff threats. The market is sleepwalking into a silversqueeze with flat prices thus far showing little appreciation for the recent developments in physical trading activity."

"A breakout appears imminent given a) the XAU/XAG ratio sits at the highs, b) CTAs and discretionary traders both hold significant dry-powder to deploy, c) SHFE Silver aggregate open interest sits at multiyear lows, but the largest traders in Shanghai have been adding to their books over the last months."

"D) London Silver continues to trade tight, e) assumptions that any potential silversqueeze will easily be resolved fail to recognize that pressure release valves require higher prices first before they can kick in. Explosive upside convexity in Silver markets remains severely underpriced."