WTI softens below $71.00, ongoing geopolitical tensions might cap its downside


  • WTI price drifts lower to near $70.80 in Friday’s Asian session. 
  • Ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, prospects of further Fed rate cuts this year could support the WTI price. 
  • The weaker oil demand in China might weigh on the WTI.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, is trading around $70.80 on Friday. WTI price edges lower amid some profit-taking. However, the downside of the WTI price might be limited as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut more interest rates in the months to come.

Israeli warplanes and artillery attacked Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on Thursday. The action came after the militia's pagers and walkie-talkies exploded last week, killing scores and injuring thousands across Lebanon, according to CNBC. “We continue to highlight Lebanon as the main pathway to oil disruption through direct Iranian involvement in a wider regional war,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The US Fed decided to cut its interest rates by half a percentage point at its September meeting on Wednesday. The new "dot plots" suggest a gradual easing cycle, with the 2024 median revised to 4.375% versus the 5.125% projection in June. Lower interest rates generally support the WTI price as it reduces the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand.

Declining US crude stockpiles might support oil prices in the near term. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending September 13 decreased by 1.63 million barrels, compared to a decline of 0.833 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by just 0.1 million barrels.

On the other hand, the concerns about weaker oil demand and the economic slowdown in China might cap the black gold’s upside. Statistics Bureau data showed Chinese Industrial Production growth slowed to a five-month low in August and Retail Sales weakened further.
 

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD holds steady near 1.2700 after UK inflation data

GBP/USD holds steady near 1.2700 after UK inflation data

GBP/USD lacks any firm intraday direction and oscillates in a range near 1.2700 on Wednesday. The data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation rose to 2.6% in November from 2.3%, as expected. Investors gear up for the Fed's monetary policy announcements.

GBP/USD News
EUR/USD strengthens above 1.0500, all eyes are on Fed rate decision

EUR/USD strengthens above 1.0500, all eyes are on Fed rate decision

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground to near 1.0505 during the early European session on Wednesday. However, the cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting could weigh on riskier assets like the Euro. 

EUR/USD News
Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid elevated US bond yields; FOMC decision awaited

Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid elevated US bond yields; FOMC decision awaited

Gold price attracts fresh sellers following an Asian session uptick to the $2,652 region, albeit it manages to hold its neck above a more than one-week low touched on Tuesday. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields.

Gold News
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple show signs of short-term correction

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple show signs of short-term correction

Bitcoin price edges slightly down during the Asian session on Wednesday. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps and declined slightly; all coins’ technical indicators and price action suggest a possible short-term correction on the cards.

Read more
DJIA ends Tuesday in the red, sheds roughly 270 points

DJIA ends Tuesday in the red, sheds roughly 270 points

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed another 360 points at its lowest on Tuesday as losses accumulate in the key index and begin to gather speed. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also closed in the red.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures