- The Oil price slides to near $67.50 as the global trade war intensifies.
- US tariffs and counter-tariffs, its major trading partners, would reduce global Oil demand.
- The OPEC+ is on track to increase Oil production by 138K barrels per day from April.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, falls sharply to near $67.50 in Wednesday’s European session. The Oil price weakens as investors worry about the Oil demand outlook amid intensifying global trade tensions.
On Tuesday, China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs on imports from the United States (US). On the same day, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China went into effect.
US President Donald Trump also reiterated that his plans of introducing reciprocal tariffs are on and will come into effect on April 2.
Market participants believe the escalating tariff war has paused employers across the globe from making fresh business investments as Trump has not unveiled a detailed import duty plan yet. Such a scenario would reduce the Oil demand in the short-term, weighing on the Oil price significantly.
Apart from escalating global trade tensions, confirmation from the OPEC+ for increasing Oil output for the first time since 2022 has also reduced the appeal of the Oil price. The OPEC+ is on track to increase its Oil production in April by 138K barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the Oil price has also failed to capitalize on tumbling US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls slightly below 105.00, the lowest level seen this year. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The US labor market data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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