WTI sits at a 78.6% Fibo and near to critical weekly resistance


  • Supply risks are capping oil's advance and bears move in at a 78.6% Fibo, below a critical counter trendline. 
  • Covid risk sentiment has resurged, yet Fed speakers downplay it. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was for the most part consolidating around a critical level of resistance, but it fell on the day.

The spot price near the Wall Street closing bell was off by some 0.15% and the price straddled the $67.90 level.

The high of the day was $68.28 and the low was $67.04. 

The move lower was the first in four days on renewed worries over the spread of the Covid-19 delta variant through the United States and elsewhere.

At the same time, the company Pemex began to send significant oil supplies to the market after a deadly weekend fire at a gulf oil platform that had forced the shut-in of about a quarter of the company's production.

Additionally, the US dollar was recovering in a resurgence fueled by hawkish Federal reserve speakers that are circling over the Jackson Hole event that started on Thursday. 

This is an event whereby the Fed's chairman, Jerome Powell will be delivering a keynote speech on Friday. 

Federal Reserve's James Bullard, Robert Kaplan and Esther George were heard urging the central bank to begin paring bond purchases.

Thin market conditions have seen strong reactions to all three of the hawks that were downplaying the impact of the coronavirus delta variant in separate interviews:

Both George and Kaplan said their business contacts were telling them the economic effects remained limited.

"By and large what we are hearing..is they are weathering this resurgence at least as well as previous surges, and many are telling us the impact on their business is more muted," Kaplan told CNBC.

Meanwhile, however, ''most of the oil-importing countries of Southeast Asia are seeing a wildfire surge of new Covid-19 infections, with lockdown measures in place in many areas,'' Reuters explained in a note on Thursday.

In the United States, the Washington Post reported that ''the number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 topped 100,000 for the first time since January.''

This is in contrast to the start of the week's optimism over slowing cases.

US crude has significantly cheapened against other global benchmarks, as the government plans to sell the largest volume of oil in seven years from its strategic reserves.

''The virus continues to dent global mobility, just as the end of summer driving season is seeing road traffic declining for many regions in Europe,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.

''In the Americas, congestion is also nudging lower, while Japan is also expected to expand its state of emergency.''

WTI technical analysis

The counter-trendline near the 69.50/71 territories are now over the horizon as the price fails to break the 78.6% Fibonacci level at the day's highs. 

The focus is on the 66.50 and a break there will expose the downside once again to target the daily swing lows near 61.80 then 57.30.

However, a break of all near term daily and weekly resistance structures, including the counter-trendline, will leave scope for a continuation towards July's highs near 77.00

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