- WTI price depreciated as last week’s data showed China's economy lost momentum in July.
- The prices of crude Oil may appreciate due to rising Middle-East tensions following Hamas’s rejection of a ceasefire deal.
- The downside of the Oil could be restrained due to rising bets of a Fed rate cut in September.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price hovers around $75.30 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. Crude Oil prices receive downward pressure due to concerns over weaker demand in top Oil importer China.
Last week, data from China showed Industrial Production increased by 5.1% year-on-year in July, falling short of the 5.2% expected and easing from the 5.3% growth seen in the previous month. This marks the third consecutive month of moderation in industrial output.
The prices of crude Oil may appreciate due to rising concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Hamas’s rejection of a ceasefire deal on Sunday. Hamas has issued a statement rejecting the terms for a hostage release-ceasefire deal discussed in Doha on Thursday and Friday. The group accuses Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of introducing new obstacles into the negotiations, according to Reuters citing a local news agency Times of Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to host US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday. Following their meeting, Blinken will travel to Cairo, where negotiations on a deal are continuing. The US has announced plans to host a second meeting later in the week and aims to finalize the agreement by the end of the week.
The downside of the Oil could be restrained due to the rising odds of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in September increases. Last week's US economic data showed Retail Sales exceeding expectations, while both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated that inflation is easing. Lower borrowing cost may positively impact the US economic activities.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly emphasized Sunday that the US central bank should take a gradual approach to reducing borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned that central bank officials should be cautious about keeping a restrictive policy in place longer than necessary.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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