WTI prices rally on US production constraints

• Oil prices rally as supply and demand conflict with WTI up near to 2% on the day.
• WTI crude should see substantial CTA buying flow, supporting higher prices still.

WTI is currently trading at $75.33 and is higher by 1.85% having travelled from a low of $73.96 to a high of $75.72 on the day so far. Today has marked the fifth straight day of gains.

Brent, the global benchmark, reached its highest since October 2018 and heading for $80 while traders noted the tighter supply conditions and the prospects of rising demand in many areas around the world.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, have had difficulty raising output as underinvestment or maintenance delays persist from the pandemic. This conflicts with the prospects of pre-pandemic levels being reached by early next year as the global economy recovers.

Reuters reported that global demand is seen rising to 100 million barrels per day by the end of 2021 or in the first quarter of 2022, Hess Corp HES President Greg Hill said. ''The world consumed 99.7 million bpd of oil in 2019, according to the IEA, before the COVID-19 pandemic hammered economic activities and fuel demand.''

''In India, oil imports hit a three-month peak in August, rebounding from nearly one-year lows touched in July, as refiners in the second-biggest importer of crude stocked up in anticipation of higher demand.''

''This will be the first time since the oil price crash in the second quarter of last year when the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged demand that ADNOC did not implement any supply cut, they said.''

US production remains constrained

Meanwhile, US production remains constrained by the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, ultimately leading to an inventories drain across the globe. However, analysts at TD Securities have argued that there is still potential for further upside demand as air travel still remains significantly curtailed.

''With the world's vaccination effort still gathering steam, and governments increasingly putting in place systems to promote travel, we could see jet fuel demand firm at a fast clip on the horizon. Expectations are also rising that the global natural gas crunch could have significant knock-on effects on oil demand, forcing consumers to look for alternative fuels,'' the analysts added.

''In response to the strong price action, WTI crude should see substantial CTA buying flow, supporting higher prices still.''