WTI Price Analysis: WTI cleared daily gains amid stronger USD

The WTI peaked at $76.11 and then settled below $76.00.
Jobless Claims came in lower than expected and strengthened the USD.
Markets turned cautious amid escalating American and Chinese tensions.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Thursday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel failed to maintain its upwards momentum, which took the price to a high of $76.11. A cautious market environment and a strong Dollar are the main ones responsible for limiting the WTI’s upwards potential, while the reports of Oil American stocks may limit the downside.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) stated that Crude Oil stocks fell in the week ending July 14. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that Crude Oil Stocks fell by 708,000 barrels which lifted the black gold’s price.

However, the USD recovered amid lower-than-expected Jobless Claims in the week ending on July 14, meaning fewer people filed for unemployment benefits. The figure came in at 228K, lower than the 242K expected and the previous figure of 237K.

As a reaction, US Treasury yields advanced across the board, meaning that markets are betting on a more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed). The 2-year yield displays nearly 2% gains and stands at 4.88%, while the 5 and 10-year yields rose to 4.10% and 3.84% showing more than 2% increase. As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets largely discounted a 25 basis point (bps) hike for next week's meeting, but the odds of a hike past July still remain low. Its worth noticing that higher rates are negatively correlated with Oil prices as they cool down economic activity and lower energy demand.

WTI Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, the technical outlook is neutral to bearish for the short term. Bulls are struggling to gain momentum, and the price is capped by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) so further downside may be on the horizon. In addition, indicators are losing strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) displaying a negative slope near its midline in positive territory while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints lower green bars.

Support levels: $73.50 (100-day SMA), $72.53 (20-day SMA), $72.00.
Resistance levels: $76.00, $76.90 (200-day SMA), $78.00.

WTI Daily chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price	75.57
Today Daily Change	0.21
Today Daily Change %	0.28
Today daily open	75.36

Trends
Daily SMA20	72.3
Daily SMA50	71.67
Daily SMA100	73.55
Daily SMA200	76.78

Levels
Previous Daily High	76.84
Previous Daily Low	75.01
Previous Weekly High	77.17
Previous Weekly Low	72.67
Previous Monthly High	74.36
Previous Monthly Low	66.95
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	75.71
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	76.14
Daily Pivot Point S1	74.64
Daily Pivot Point S2	73.91
Daily Pivot Point S3	72.8
Daily Pivot Point R1	76.47
Daily Pivot Point R2	77.57
Daily Pivot Point R3	78.3

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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