- The upside in the oil price looks restricted amid a recovery in the US Dollar.
- An absence of follow-up selling after a loss in the upside momentum indicates that oil is preparing for a recovery.
- Advancing 50-period EMA at $82.00 is providing a cushion to the oil bulls.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, defended the critical support of $82.00 on Friday. The oil price has rebounded from $82.00, however, the absence of strength in recovery has pushed the black gold inside the woods. The black gold is struggling to gather strength as investors are divided that they should remain cautionary on deepening expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) or cheer the fact that the Fed would reach to terminal rate, as widely expected.
The sideways performance in the oil price is also the outcome of recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has recovered to near 101.75 after printing an annual low of 100.78, which has restricted the upside for the oil price.
The oil price has shifted its auction into the $81.80-83.40 range from the prior auction of $79.00-81.80, which indicates that the upside bias is still solid. Also, advancing 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.00 is providing a cushion to the oil bulls.
On a two-hour scale, exhaustion in the upside momentum can be recognized as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has formed a lower high while the asset is still making higher highs. An absence of follow-up selling after a loss in the upside momentum indicates that the asset is preparing for a recovery.
For a fresh buy, a move above April 13 high at $83.00 will press a buying opportunity. This would drive the asset towards November 16 high at $87.47 followed by the round-level resistance at $90.00.
On the flip side, a downside move below April 03 low would force oil to fill the gap inspired by the surprise announcement of production cuts by OPEC+. This will drag the asset towards March 31 high at $75.78 and March 28 low at $72.26.
WTI two-hour chart
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