- The Oil price dives further amid growing concerns over China’s economic outlook.
- The PBoC surprisingly reduced its Loan Prime Rate by 10 bps.
- Kamala Harris’s nomination for Democrats’ leader has increased US political uncertainty.
West Texas intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends its downside below $78.00 in Monday’s American session. The Oil price weakens as an unexpected decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to cut its benchmark rates has pointed to concerns over the China’s economic outlook. China is the world’s largest Oil importer and an uncertainty over its economic prospects is an unfavorable situation for the Oil price.
The PBoC lowered its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively. It is expected that the rate-cut move from the PBoC has come due to weaker-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. The data came in showed that the economy grew by 0.7%, slower than estimates of 1.1% and the former release of 1.5%.
Apart from growing demand concerns, easing fears of the Oil market remaining tight have also weighed heavily on the Oil price. A note from Morgan Stanley showed that it expects the supply from OPEC and non-OPEC players to grow by about 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025, well ahead of demand growth.
Meanwhile, the United States (US) political uncertainty has also weighed on the Oil price. According to market speculation, Doanld Trump-led-Republican is expected to win presidential elections. Trump has promised to increase US Oil production if he comes out victorious.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower as US Vice President Kamala Harris appears as nominee of Democrats.
Going forward, the Oil price will be influenced by preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data from various nations, which will indicate the global demand outlook.
Brent Crude Oil FAQs
Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply.
Like all assets supply and demand are the key drivers of Brent Crude Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of Brent Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of Brent Crude Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact Brent Crude Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in daily range slightly below 1.0900
EUR/USD continues to move up and down in a narrow band slightly below 1.0900 in the second half of the day on Monday. The modest improvement seen in risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to find demand and helps the pair stay in range.
GBP/USD treads water above 1.2900 amid risk recovery
GBP/USD is keeping its range play intact above 1.2900 in the American session on Monday. The positive shift seen in risk sentiment doesn't allow the US Dollar to gather strength and helps the pair hold its ground ahead of this week's key data releases.
Gold drops to fresh 10-day low below $2,390
Gold stays under persistent bearish pressure after breaking below the key $2,400 level and trades at its lowest level in over a week below $2,390. In the absence of fundamental drivers, technical developments seem to be causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin is less than 10% away from all-time high as Ethereum ETF approval anticipation brews
Bitcoin trades around $68,000 early on Monday, less than 10% away from its all-time high of $73,777 on Binance. Ethereum ETF anticipation brews among traders and Ether investment products see inflow of over $45 million in the past week.
Election volatility and tech earnings take centre stage
/stock-market-graph-gm532464153-55981218_XtraSmall.jpg)
The US Dollar managed to end the week higher as Trump Trades ensued. Safe-havens CHF and JPY were also higher while activity currencies such as NOK and NZD underperformed.