WTI holds steady below $69.50 amid mounting Russia-Ukraine tensions

WTI price steadies near $69.30 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory.
Weaker Chinese demand could weigh on the WTI price.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.30 on Wednesday. The WTI price trades flat after Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time.

On Tuesday, Russia’s defense ministry said that Ukraine hit a facility in the Bryansk region with six ATACAMS missiles. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike. The rising geopolitical tensions could boost the WTI price for the time being. "This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes said.

Additionally, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of a "crushing response" to Israel's recent air strikes on Iran, which raise concerns about the region's crude supply disruption. This, in turn, might contribute to the WTI’s upside.

On the other hand, China's demand for oil slowed dramatically this year. China's crude oil demand fell -5.4% YoY in October, which might exert some selling pressure on the black gold as China is the world's second-largest crude consumer. Chinese demand growth is set to reach just 140,000 bpd this year, a tenth of the 1.4 million bpd demand growth of 2023, according to the IEA.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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