- WTI prices extend its losing streak to six-month lows.
- The downside of the Oil prices could be restrained due to heightened supply concerns.
- US Secretary of State Tony Blinken stated that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel as early as Monday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price trades around $73.10 per barrel, extending its losses to six-month lows on Monday. However, the downside of the Oil prices could be limited due to rising supply risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Crude Oil prices received support from the ongoing conflict in Gaza, with an Israeli airstrike hitting two schools and resulting in at least 30 casualties on Sunday, according to Palestinian officials. This escalation follows a round of talks in Cairo that ended without progress, as reported by Reuters.
Israel and the United States are preparing for a potential escalation in the region following Iran and its allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, pledging retaliation against Israel for the killing of a Hamas leader. US Secretary of State Tony Blinken stated on Sunday that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel as early as Monday, according to three sources briefed on the call, as reported by Axios.
Read more: US Sec State Blinken tells G7 that Iran and Hezbollah attack on Israel could start Monday
Crude Oil prices declined due to increased recession fears in the United States, the world’s largest Oil consumer. This drop was influenced by Friday's disappointing US jobs market data and a larger-than-expected contraction in factory activity, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 114K in July from the previous month of 179K (revised down from 206K). This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 175K, data showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate rose to the highest level since November 2021, coming in at 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June. Additionally, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) tumbled to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia (OPEC+), are adhering to their plan to gradually end voluntary production cuts starting in October. Despite this, a Reuters survey released on Friday indicated that OPEC Oil output increased in July, even with the group's production cuts in place.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Sellers gain confidence alongside the Fed Premium
The EUR/USD pair fell towards a fresh two-month low of 1.0900, finishing the second consecutive week in negative though little changed at around 1.0940.
Read full analysis
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound Sterling stays vulnerable ahead of UK inflation data Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) booked the second straight weekly loss against the US Dollar (USD), sending the GBP/USD pair to the lowest level in a month below 1.3050.
Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD holds above key support area after bearish action to start week Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) declined sharply in the first half of the week but regained its traction after coming within a touching distance of $2,600.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Will BTC decline further?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell over 6% at some point this week until Thursday, extending losses for a second consecutive week, as it faced rejection from a key resistance barrier.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.