WTI drops and extends its losses below $79.00 after an increase in US oil inventories

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is extending its fall to three straight days of consecutive losses, weighed by crude oil inventories in the United States (US) jumping more than estimates. Speculations of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) bolstered the greenback, a headwind for oil prices. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $78.40.

WTI is climbing above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) even though US crude oil inventories have risen the most since June 2021. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) agency revealed that crude stockpiles increased by 16.3 million barrels, in the week of February 10, to 471.4 million barrels.

Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, a delivery hub for futures, jumped by 659K last week, while refinery crude fell by 383K barrels per day. Gasoline inventories advanced by 2.3 million barrels to 241.9 million, exceeding analysts’ estimates of a 1.5 million barrels rise. Distillate inventories which account for diesel and heating oil, dropped by 1.3 million to 119.2 million, vs. expectations for a 400K barrel increase.

Aside from this, US Retail Sales for January smashed expectations and exceeded estimates. Therefore, recent Fed hawkish commentary, following Tuesday’s CPI print and today’s data, sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve would continue to tighten conditions, a tailwind for the greenback.

WTI Technical analysis

Albeit WTI remains neutral to downward biased, it remains consolidated in the $77.30-$80.50 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the bullish territory is almost flat, portraying oil as rangebound. In contrast, the Rate of Change (RoC) portrays sellers gaining momentum. Therefore, mixed signals suggest caution is warranted.

For WTI to resume its uptrend, it will need to conquer $80.50, which would open the door to test the 100 and 200-day EMAs, each at $81.43 and $85.00. As an alternate scenario, oil prices would resume their downtrend, with a decisive break below $77.00, dragging prices towards the YTD Low at $72.30.