WTI depreciates below $68.50, downside appears limited due to rising geopolitical tensions


  • WTI may find support as traders assess reports that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of breaching the ceasefire agreement.
  • Russian President Putin warned of a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine.
  • Traders seek clarity on the production strategy of the OPEC+ at the rescheduled meeting on December 5.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price retraces its recent gains, trading around $68.40 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday. However, this downside of the crude Oil prices could be restrained as markets assess reports that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of breaching the ceasefire agreement.

Additionally, reports suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine, following Moscow's recent large-scale attacks on key energy infrastructure.

Traders remained cautious, seeking clarity on the production strategy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) after a four-day postponement of a key meeting. At the rescheduled meeting on December 5, the alliance will deliberate on whether to proceed with restoring supplies or extend production cuts into 2025 to avoid oversupplying the global market.

Markets are keeping a close watch on upcoming US data for insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Rising borrowing costs in the United States (US), the world’s largest Oil consumer, weigh on economic activity, subsequently reducing Oil demand.

On Wednesday, US core PCE prices for October met expectations, keeping investor hopes alive for another rate cut in December. However, other data indicated a resilient economy, suggesting that the Fed may take a cautious approach in the coming year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 55.9% a week ago. However, they expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged during its January and March meetings.

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds near 1.0550 after Eurozone inflation data

EUR/USD holds near 1.0550 after Eurozone inflation data

EUR/USD trades marginally higher on the day at around 1.0550 in the European session. The data from the Eurozone showed that the annual HICP inflation rose to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, as expected. Financial markets in the US will close early on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD regains 1.2700 on weaker US Dollar

GBP/USD regains 1.2700 on weaker US Dollar

GBP/USD retains some follow-through positive traction above 1.2700 in European trading on Friday, sitting close to a two-week top. Broad-based US Dollar weakness, improving risk appetite and thin market condtions continue to aid the pair's recovery. 

GBP/USD News
Gold price eases off weekly highs, remains above $2,650

Gold price eases off weekly highs, remains above $2,650

Gold price has eased from the weely highs but holds moderate gains above $2,650 in the European session on Friday. Gold price builds on this week's goodish rebound from the $2,600 neighborhood. US President-elect Trump's tariff plans, Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risks and dovish Fed bets power the bright metal. 

Gold News
Bitcoin attempts for the $100K mark

Bitcoin attempts for the $100K mark

Bitcoin (BTC) price extends its recovery and nears the $100K mark on Friday after facing a healthy correction this week. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) closed above their key resistance levels, indicating a rally in the upcoming days.

Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures